دورية أكاديمية

Assessing the effectiveness of the intervention measures of COVID-19 in China based on dynamical method

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Assessing the effectiveness of the intervention measures of COVID-19 in China based on dynamical method
المؤلفون: Xiaomeng Wei, Mingtao Li, Xin Pei, Zhiping Liu, Juan Zhang
المصدر: Infectious Disease Modelling, Vol 8, Iss 1, Pp 159-171 (2023)
بيانات النشر: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd., 2023.
سنة النشر: 2023
المجموعة: LCC:Infectious and parasitic diseases
مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, Close contact tracking, Large-scale nucleic acid testing, Dynamics, The basic reproduction number, Sensitivity analysis, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
الوصف: Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022. However, the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to differences in final size of the infections. Taking the outbreak of COVID-19 in three representative cities Xi'an, Zhengzhou and Yuzhou in January 2022, as examples, we develop a compartmental model to describe the spread of novel coronavirus and implementation of interventions to assess concretely the effectiveness of Chinese interventions and explore their impact on epidemic patterns. After applying reported human confirmed cases to verify the rationality of the model, we apply the model to speculate transmission trend and length of concealed period at the initial spread phase of the epidemic (they are estimated as 10.5, 7.8, 8.2 days, respectively), to estimate the range of basic reproduction number (2.9, 0.7, 1.6), and to define two indexes (transmission rate vt and controlled rate vc) to evaluate the overall effect of the interventions. It is shown that for Zhengzhou, vc is always more than vt with regular interventions, and Xi'an take 8 days to achieve vc > vt twice as long as Yuzhou, which can interpret the fact that the epidemic situation in Xi'an was more severe. By carrying out parameter values, it is concluded that in the early stage, strengthening the precision of close contact tracking and frequency of large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population are the most effective on controlling the outbreaks and reducing final size. And, if the close contact tracking strategy is sufficiently implemented, at the late stage large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population is not essential.
نوع الوثيقة: article
وصف الملف: electronic resource
اللغة: English
تدمد: 2468-0427
العلاقة: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042722001130Test; https://doaj.org/toc/2468-0427Test
DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.007
الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/02cd94b4ef3c4dd788de377fc0d8799cTest
رقم الانضمام: edsdoj.02cd94b4ef3c4dd788de377fc0d8799c
قاعدة البيانات: Directory of Open Access Journals
الوصف
تدمد:24680427
DOI:10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.007