دورية أكاديمية
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
| العنوان: | Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 |
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| المؤلفون: | Bhattacharjee, NV, Schumacher, AE, Aali, A, Abate, YH, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abbasian, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd ElHafeez, S, Abd-Elsalam, S, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahifar, MA, Abdoun, M, Abdullahi, A, Abebe, M, Abebe, SS, Abiodun, O, Abolhassani, H, Abolmaali, M, Abouzid, M, Aboye, GB, Abreu, LG, Abrha, WA, Abrigo, MRM, Abtahi, D, Abualruz, H, Abubakar, B, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Adal, TGG, Adane, MM, Adeagbo, OAA, Adedoyin, RA, Adekanmbi, V, Aden, B, Adepoju, AV, Adetokunboh, OO, Adetunji, JB, Adeyinka, DA, Adeyomoye, OI, Adnani, QES, Adra, S, Afolabi, RF, Afyouni, S, Afzal, MS, Afzal, S, Aghamiri, S, Agodi, A, Agyemang-Duah, W, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahlstrom, AJ, Ahmad, A, Ahmad, D, Ahmad, F, Ahmad, MM, Ahmad, S, Ahmad, T, Ahmed, A, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, LA, Ahmed, MS, Ahmed, SA, Ajami, M, Aji, B, Akalu, GT, Akbarialiabad, H, Akinyemi, RO, Akkaif, MA, Akkala, S, Al Hamad, H, Al Hasan, SM, Al Qadire, M, AL-Ahdal, TMA, Alalalmeh, SO, Alalwan, TA, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Al-amer, RM, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Albakri, A, Albashtawy, M, AlBataineh, MT, Alemi, H, Alemi, S, Alemu, YM, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Gheethi, AAS, Alhabib, KF, Alhajri, N, Alhalaiqa, FAN, Alhassan, RK, Ali, A, Ali, BA, Ali, L, Ali, MU, Ali, R, Ali, SSS, Alif, SM, Xu, Luna, Biswas, Raaj Kishore, Okeke, Sylvester, Dai-Keller, Zhaoli |
| المصدر: | urn:ISSN:0140-6736 ; urn:ISSN:1474-547X ; The Lancet, 403, 10440, 2057-2099 |
| بيانات النشر: | Elsevier |
| سنة النشر: | 2024 |
| المجموعة: | UNSW Sydney (The University of New South Wales): UNSWorks |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | 3 Good Health and Well Being, 4 Quality Education, Humans, Birth Rate, Adult, Female, Global Burden of Disease, Middle Aged, Adolescent, Young Adult, Male, Global Health, Child, Forecasting, Fertility, Population Forecast, Preschool, Demography, GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, anzsrc-for: 11 Medical and Health Sciences |
| الوصف: | Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | unknown |
| العلاقة: | http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/102182Test; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736Test(24)00550-6 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736Test(24)00550-6 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.4/102182Test |
| حقوق: | open access ; https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Test ; CC BY ; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Test/ |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.F2F093B |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6 |
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