دورية أكاديمية
Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study
| العنوان: | Sensitivity of bias adjustment methods to low-frequency internal climate variability over the reference period: an ideal model study |
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| المؤلفون: | Bonnet, Rémy, Boucher, Olivier, Vrac, Mathieu, Jin, Xia |
| المساهمون: | Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), ANR-17-EURE-0006,IPSL-CGS,IPSL Climate graduate school(2017) |
| المصدر: | ISSN: 2752-5295. |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD IOPScience |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| المجموعة: | Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | bias adjustment, Internal climate variability, climate change, climate projection, impact studies, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
| الوصف: | International audience ; Climate simulations often need to be adjusted before carrying out impact studies at a regional scale. Technically, bias adjustment methods are generally calibrated over the last few decades, in order to benefit from a more comprehensive and accurate observational network. At these timescales, however, the climate state may be influenced by the low-frequency internal climate variability. There is therefore a risk of introducing a bias to the climate projections by bias-adjusting simulations with low-frequency variability in a different phase to that of the observations. In this study, we developed a new pseudo-reality framework using an ensemble of simulations from the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model in order to assess the impact of the low-frequency internal climate variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures on bias-adjusted projections of mean and extreme surface temperature over Europe. We show that using simulations in a similar phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reduces the pseudo-biases in temperature projections. Therefore, for models and regions where low frequency internal variability matters, it is recommended to sample relevant climate simulations to be bias adjusted in a model ensemble or alternatively to use a very long reference period when possible. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| العلاقة: | hal-03799293; https://hal.science/hal-03799293Test; https://hal.science/hal-03799293/documentTest; https://hal.science/hal-03799293/file/Bonnet_2022_Environ._Res.%20_Climate_1_011001.pdfTest |
| DOI: | 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adcTest https://hal.science/hal-03799293Test https://hal.science/hal-03799293/documentTest https://hal.science/hal-03799293/file/Bonnet_2022_Environ._Res.%20_Climate_1_011001.pdfTest |
| حقوق: | info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.EA65B2D0 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6adc |
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