التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
A semi-empirical risk panel to monitor epidemics: multi-faceted tool to assist healthcare and public health professionals |
| المؤلفون: |
Perramon-Malavez, Aida, Bravo, Mario, de Rioja, Víctor López, Català, Martí, Alonso, Sergio, Álvarez-Lacalle, Enrique, López, Daniel, Soriano-Arandes, Antoni, Prats, Clara |
| المصدر: |
Frontiers in Public Health ; volume 11 ; ISSN 2296-2565 |
| بيانات النشر: |
Frontiers Media SA |
| سنة النشر: |
2024 |
| المجموعة: |
Frontiers (Publisher - via CrossRef) |
| الوصف: |
Introduction Bronchiolitis, mostly caused by Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and influenza among other respiratory infections, lead to seasonal saturation at healthcare centers in temperate areas. There is no gold standard to characterize the stages of epidemics, nor the risk of respiratory infections growing. We aimed to define a set of indicators to assess the risk level of respiratory viral epidemics, based on both incidence and their short-term dynamics, and considering epidemical thresholds. Methods We used publicly available data on daily cases of influenza for the whole population and bronchiolitis in children <2 years from the Information System for Infection Surveillance in Catalonia (SIVIC). We included a Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) variation to define epidemic threshold and levels. We pre-processed the data with two different nowcasting approaches and performed a 7-day moving average. Weekly incidences (cases per 10 5 population) were computed and the 5-day growth rate was defined to create the effective potential growth (EPG) indicator. We performed a correlation analysis to define the forecasting ability of this index. Results Our adaptation of the MEM method allowed us to define epidemic weekly incidence levels and epidemic thresholds for bronchiolitis and influenza. EPG was able to anticipate daily 7-day cumulative incidence by 4–5 (bronchiolitis) or 6–7 (influenza) days. Discussion We developed a semi-empirical risk panel incorporating the EPG index, which effectively anticipates surpassing epidemic thresholds for bronchiolitis and influenza. This panel could serve as a robust surveillance tool, applicable to respiratory infectious diseases characterized by seasonal epidemics, easy to handle for individuals lacking a mathematical background. |
| نوع الوثيقة: |
article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: |
unknown |
| DOI: |
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307425 |
| DOI: |
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307425/full |
| الإتاحة: |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307425Test |
| حقوق: |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0Test/ |
| رقم الانضمام: |
edsbas.B9A8E99 |
| قاعدة البيانات: |
BASE |
