دورية أكاديمية
Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)
| العنوان: | Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) |
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| المؤلفون: | Smith, Doug M., Gillett, Nathan P., Simpson, Isla R., Athanasiadis, Panos J., Baehr, Johanna, Bethke, Ingo, Bilge, Tarkan A., Bonnet, Rémy, Boucher, Olivier, Findell, Kirsten L., Gastineau, Guillaume, Gualdi, Silvio, Hermanson, Leon, Leung, L. Ruby, Mignot, Juliette, Müller, Wolfgang A., Osprey, Scott, Otterå, Odd Helge, Persad, Geeta G., Scaife, Adam A., Schmidt, Gavin, Shiogama, Hideo, Sutton, Rowan T., Swingedouw, Didier, Yang, Shuting, Zhou, Tianjun, Ziehn, Tilo |
| المساهمون: | Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici Bologna (CMCC), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg (UHH), Geophysical Institute Bergen (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Centre for Atmospheric Science Leeds (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Oxford, Department of Geological Sciences Austin, Jackson School of Geosciences (JSG), University of Texas at Austin Austin -University of Texas at Austin Austin, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS), University of Exeter, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Meteorology Reading, University of Reading (UOR), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (UCAS), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere |
| المصدر: | ISSN: 2624-9553 ; Frontiers in Climate ; https://hal.science/hal-03815311Test ; Frontiers in Climate, 2022, 4, ⟨10.3389/fclim.2022.955414⟩. |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD Frontiers Media SA |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| المجموعة: | Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines: HAL-UVSQ |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
| الوصف: | International audience ; Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| العلاقة: | hal-03815311; https://hal.science/hal-03815311Test; https://hal.science/hal-03815311/documentTest; https://hal.science/hal-03815311/file/fclim-04-955414.pdfTest; IRD: fdi:010088277; WOS: 001019276100001 |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.955414Test https://hal.science/hal-03815311Test https://hal.science/hal-03815311/documentTest https://hal.science/hal-03815311/file/fclim-04-955414.pdfTest |
| حقوق: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/byTest/ ; info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.8C38FB51 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.3389/fclim.2022.955414 |
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