دورية أكاديمية
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
| العنوان: | Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding |
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| المؤلفون: | J. Rohmer, D. Idier, R. Thieblemont, G. Le Cozannet, F. Bachoc |
| المصدر: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 3167-3182 (2022) |
| بيانات النشر: | Copernicus Publications |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| المجموعة: | Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5 |
| الوصف: | Getting a deep insight into the role of coastal flooding drivers is of great interest for the planning of adaptation strategies for future climate conditions. Using global sensitivity analysis, we aim to measure the contributions of the offshore forcing conditions (wave–wind characteristics, still water level and sea level rise (SLR) projected up to 2200) to the occurrence of a flooding event at Gâvres town on the French Atlantic coast in a macrotidal environment. This procedure faces, however, two major difficulties, namely (1) the high computational time costs of the hydrodynamic numerical simulations and (2) the statistical dependence between the forcing conditions. By applying a Monte Carlo-based approach combined with multivariate extreme value analysis, our study proposes a procedure to overcome both difficulties by calculating sensitivity measures dedicated to dependent input variables (named Shapley effects) using Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. On this basis, our results show the increasing influence of SLR over time and a small-to-moderate contribution of wave–wind characteristics or even negligible importance in the very long term (beyond 2100). These results were discussed in relation to our modelling choices, in particular the climate change scenario, as well as the uncertainties of the estimation procedure (Monte Carlo sampling and GP error). |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| العلاقة: | https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3167/2022/nhess-22-3167-2022.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981Test; https://doaj.org/article/1c74757793cb420b8c479e3832db911bTest |
| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022Test https://doaj.org/article/1c74757793cb420b8c479e3832db911bTest |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.3AEEA1AE |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 15618633 16849981 |
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| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022 |