Please cite this paper as: Lee et al. (2011) The potential economic value of a ‘universal’ (multi‐year) influenza vaccine. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(3), 167–175. Background Limitations of the current annual influenza vaccine have led to ongoing efforts to develop a ‘universal’ influenza vaccine, i.e., one that targets a ubiquitous portion of the influenza virus so that the coverage of a single vaccination can persist for multiple years. Objectives To estimate the economic value of a ‘universal’ influenza vaccine compared to the standard annual influenza vaccine, starting vaccination in the pediatric population (2–18 year olds), over the course of their lifetime. Patient/Methods Monte Carlo decision analytic computer simulation model. Results Universal vaccine dominates (i.e., less costly and more effective) the annual vaccine when the universal vaccine cost ≤$100/dose and efficacy ≥75% for both the 5‐ and 10‐year duration. The universal vaccine is also dominant when efficacy is ≥50% and protects for 10 years. A $200 universal vaccine was only cost‐effective when ≥75% efficacious for a 5‐year duration when annual compliance was 25% and for a 10‐year duration for all annual compliance rates. A universal vaccine is not cost‐effective when it cost $200 and when its efficacy is ≤50%. The cost‐effectiveness of the universal vaccine increases with the duration of protection. Conclusions Although development of a universal vaccine requires surmounting scientific hurdles, our results delineate the circumstances under which such a vaccine would be a cost‐effective alternative to the annual influenza vaccine.
