Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations
| العنوان: | Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations |
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| المؤلفون: | Filippo Giorgi, Erika Coppola, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Sushant Das, Moetasim Ashfaq, Taleena Sines, Russell Glazer |
| المصدر: | Climate Dynamics. 57:1595-1613 |
| بيانات النشر: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Severe weather, Climate change, Storm, Subtropics, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Convective available potential energy, Geography, Climatology, Cape, Thunderstorm, Tornado, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| الوصف: | Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. In this study we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase in CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather. |
| تدمد: | 1432-0894 0930-7575 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::b0c0307ecf06eea22421515b2e760496Test https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05439-4Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi...........b0c0307ecf06eea22421515b2e760496 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14320894 09307575 |
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