Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. We apply a novel integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic, and life cycle assessment (LCA) models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We assess the effectiveness of changing management strategies to address climate change and the opportunity to relocate away from regions with increased water scarcity. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures. Land and water footprints will decline over time due to higher yields, and GHG emissions can be mitigated by waste reduction and process modification. Our integrated methodology can be applied to other crops and geographies, and the results could inform decision-making at multiple steps along supply chains.
