المؤلفون: Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa, Termonia, Piet, Tabari, Hossein

المصدر: Communications Earth & Environment ; ISSN: 2662-4435

الوصف: AbstractThe intensification of compound hot-dry events due to climate change is a pressing concern, underscoring the need for precise analysis. However, the impact of different dry indicators on projections of these events has not been quantitatively evaluated, nor has its importance been compared with other sources of uncertainty. Here we examine the sensitivity of projected changes in compound hot-dry events to different dry indicators. We use data from 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to characterize global dry conditions based on precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, and a multivariate index combining these variables through trivariate copulas. Our findings reveal large differences in projected changes in the likelihood of compound hot-dry events across different dry indicators. While model uncertainty remains the primary source of uncertainty for compound hot-dry event projections, the uncertainty associated with dry indicators is also substantial, surpassing scenario uncertainty in specific regions.

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKFTest; http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKFTest; http://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01352-4Test; https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKF/file/01HWAGWRBS63K3CDQGT8QBEREXTest

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01352-4Test
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKFTest
http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKFTest
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWAGVZARQQAWN54NXH6Y3KKF/file/01HWAGWRBS63K3CDQGT8QBEREXTest

المؤلفون: Van Poecke, Aaron, Tabari, Hossein, Hellinckx, Peter

المصدر: 23524847 ; Energy Reports

مصطلحات موضوعية: Physics, Engineering sciences. Technology

الوصف: A myriad of techniques regarding renewable energy forecasting have been proposed in recent literature, commonly classified as physical, statistical, machine learning based or a hybrid form thereof. The renewable energy forecasting process is however elaborate and consists of multiple stages, where different approaches from these four categories apply variably, complicating a holistic classification of the process. This paper resolves this by utilizing the fundamental difference between direct and indirect forecasting in terms of model complexity, data availability, spatial and time horizons as the backbone to structure this intricate forecasting process. As such, a significant step towards a generalized framework for renewable energy forecasting is presented. Additionally, a most promising recommendation emerges: leveraging physics-based knowledge from indirect models to enhance training of direct methods.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/001136344400001

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EGYR.2023.12.031Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/2027550151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:21777Test

المؤلفون: Nunez Meijia, Santiago X., Paz, Santiago Mendoza, Tabari, Hossein, Willems, Patrick

المصدر: 22145818 ; Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

مصطلحات موضوعية: Biology

الوصف: Study region: Quito, Ecuador Study focus: The study region faces two water-related challenges, which, to date, have only been studied to a minimal extent: extreme precipitation events and water shortage in the dry season. This study investigates the current conditions and future changes in short-duration events, low river discharges and associated uncertainties. Daily precipitation and temperature projections from 19 state-of-the-art global climate models (CMIP6) and four future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are downscaled with delta change and more advanced quantile perturbation methodologies. Temporal disaggregation is applied to obtain sub-daily precipitation with five extreme value distributions (EVDs). Three conceptual hydrological models are implemented to quantify the impacts on river flows. Variance decomposition is applied to estimate the uncertainty share of climate models, hydrological models, and EVDs in the results. New hydrological insights: The results indicate an intensification of extreme precipitation events, with short-duration events expected to be more intense by up to 30% in the near future (2021-2050) and up to 60% in the far future (2070-2099). The river peak discharges are pro-jected to increase by 5-20% and 10-50% in the near and far future, respectively. On the contrary, the low river flows are projected to decrease by 0-13% and 0-30% for the respective time ho-rizons. Overall, climate models are the dominant source of uncertainty.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/001072236000001

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EJRH.2023.101522Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/2003520151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:20225Test

المؤلفون: Tabari, Hossein, Willems, Patrick

المصدر: 2397-3722 ; npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

مصطلحات موضوعية: Physics, Chemistry, Engineering sciences. Technology

الوصف: Compound hot-dry events have the potential to cause significant damages and propel socioeconomic systems towards tipping points by overwhelming the ability of natural and human systems to cope with the combined stressors. As climate change continues to alter hazard patterns, the impacts of these events will be further compounded by changes in exposure and vulnerability. However, the future risk of these events and the role of these components remain poorly understood. Using a multimodel ensemble, we find that by the end of the 21st century, an additional 0.7-1.7 billion people globally will be exposed to amplified compound events, depending on the scenarios. Additionally, the cropland exposure to these events is projected to increase by 2-5.7 million km(2). Our findings also suggest that countries with weak governance will experience a twice larger increase in the risk of compound events than those with good governance. This underscores the importance of effective governance in mitigating and managing the escalating risks of compound events.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/001017499600002

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/S41612-023-00401-7Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1977790151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:18624Test

المؤلفون: Onyutha, Charles, Golian, Saeed, Moftakhari, Hamed, Najafi, Mohammad Reza, Tabari, Hossein

المصدر: Frontiers in water ; 2624-9375

مصطلحات موضوعية: Biology, Engineering sciences. Technology

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/000998595500001

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.3389/FRWA.2023.1205502Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1974470151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:18372Test

المؤلفون: Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, Termonia, Piet, Tabari, Hossein

المصدر: 2212-0947 ; Weather and Climate Extremes

مصطلحات موضوعية: Physics, Chemistry

الوصف: Climate change may have different impacts on different types of drought through its influence on the mechanisms of the propagation of a precipitation lack into a hydrological or agricultural drought. The involvement of additional processes in runoff and soil moisture modeling potentially leads to discrepancies in the projection uncertainties and signal-to-noise ratios between different drought types. This global study compares climate change signals, uncertainty, and signal-to-noise ratios between meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts characterized by standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSI), respectively. The comparison is made for five drought characteristics including median and peak intensity, median and longest duration, and frequency using 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. We find that the spatial extent and magnitude in all five drought characteristics increase from meteorological to hydrological to agricultural drought. This increase manifests itself, however, at the expense of augmented uncertainty, to the extent that uncertainty for agricultural drought is up to sevenfold larger compared to meteorological drought. Despite the augmentation of uncertainty from meteorological to agricultural drought, the hierarchy of drought types for climate change signals still holds for the spatial extent of significant signal-to-noise ratios.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/001010675500001

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2023.100573Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1973430151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:18266Test

المؤلفون: Tabari, Hossein, Willems, Patrick

المصدر: 2662-4435 ; Communications Earth & Environment

مصطلحات موضوعية: Physics, Chemistry, Biology

الوصف: Drought is a major natural hazard that can cause cascading impacts on socioeconomic sectors, and its risk is expected to increase under future climate change and socioeconomic developments. However, a comprehensive cross-disciplinary drought risk outlook is currently lacking to support integrative disaster risk reduction efforts. To address this gap, our analysis examines drought exposure, vulnerability, and risk towards the end of this century under four future pathways. The study identifies the Mediterranean, Amazon, southern Africa, and Central America as the most impacted regions where extreme multivariate drought is projected to become two to four times more likely. Our analysis also shows that sustainable development would reduce population exposure to drought by 70% compared to fossil-fueled development. Furthermore, it halves the number of countries facing a fivefold increase in drought risk. Our results underscore the critical need for a cross-disciplinary drought risk outlook and emphasize the importance of considering exposure and vulnerability for risk assessments. Future drought impacts are expected to be highest in the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa and Central America, but exposure and socioeconomic risk could be reduced with sustainable development, suggests an analysis that integrates information on precipitation, runoff and soil moisture.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/000994939400004

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/S43247-023-00840-3Test
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1973440151162165141Test
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:18267Test

المؤلفون: Núñez Mejía, Santiago X., Mendoza Paz, Santiago, Tabari, Hossein, Willems, Patrick

المساهمون: VLIRUOS

المصدر: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies ; volume 49, page 101522 ; ISSN 2214-5818

مصطلحات موضوعية: Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Water Science and Technology

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101522Test
https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S2214581823002094?httpAccept=text/xmlTest
https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S2214581823002094?httpAccept=text/plainTest

المؤلفون: Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa, Termonia, Piet, Tabari, Hossein

المصدر: EGU General Assembly 2024

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KVTest; http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KVTest; http://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9167Test; https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KV/file/01HWR98HC7CGGF5DMETKFN6XTGTest

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-9167Test
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KVTest
http://hdl.handle.net/1854/LU-01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KVTest
https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/01HWR9643CMTYY6EYT9YHK76KV/file/01HWR98HC7CGGF5DMETKFN6XTGTest

المؤلفون: Termonia, Piet, Van Schaeybroeck, Bert, De Cruz, Lesley, De Troch, Rozemien, Giot, Olivier, Hamdi, Rafiq, Vannitsem, Stéphane, Duchêne, François, Willems, Patrick, Tabari, Hossein, Van Uytven, Els, Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa, Van Lipzig, Nicole, Wouters, Hendrik, Vanden Broucke, Sam, Demuzere, Matthias, van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal, Marbaix, Philippe, Villanueva-Birriel, Cecille, Fettweis, Xavier, Wyard, Coraline, Scholzen, Chloé, Doutreloup, Sébastien, De Ridder, Koen, Lauwaet, Dirk, Gobin, Anne, Stavrakou, Trissevgeni, Bauwens, Maite, Müller, Jean-François, Luyten, Patrick, Ponsar, Stéphanie, Van den Eynde, Dries, Pottiaux, Eric

المساهمون: Politique Scientifique Fédérale (Belgique) = Belgian Federal Science Policy, sponsor

مصطلحات موضوعية: Physical, chemical, mathematical & earth Sciences :: Earth sciences & physical geography, Physique, chimie, mathématiques & sciences de la terre :: Sciences de la terre & géographie physique

الوصف: The main objectives of the CORDEX.be project were:1. Contribute to the international climate community by participating to EURO-CORDEX byperforming regional climate simulations over Europe.2. Provide an ensemble of High-Resolution (H-Res) climate simulations over Belgium i.e. tocreate a small ensemble of high-resolution future projections over Belgium at convectionpermittingresolutions.3. Couple these model simulations to seven local-impact models for impact studies.4. Present an overview of the ongoing climate modeling activities in Belgium.5. Provide coherent climate information for Belgium targeted to end-users, backed by: (i) aunified framework for the H-Res climate runs and (ii) uncertainty estimations on the climatechange signal;6. Provide and present a climate-impact report for stakeholders and the general public thathighlight the most important results of the project.
BRAIN-be

وصف الملف: 119

الوصول الحر: https://orbi.uliege.be/handle/2268/226991Test