المؤلفون: Thompson, RN, Hollingsworth, TD, Isham, V, Arribas-Bel, D, Ashby, B, Britton, T, Challenor, P, Chappell, LHK, Clapham, H, Cunniffe, NJ, Dawid, AP, Donnelly, CA, Eggo, RM, Funk, S, Gilbert, N, Glendinning, P, Gog, JR, Hart, WS, Heesterbeek, H, House, T, Keeling, M, Kiss, IZ, Kretzschmar, ME, Lloyd, AL, McBryde, ES, McCaw, JM, McKinley, TJ, Miller, JC, Morris, M, O'Neill, PD, Parag, K, Pearson, CAB, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Ross, J, Tomba, GS, Silverman, BW, Struchiner, CJ, Tildesley, MJ, Trapman, P, Webb, CR, Mollison, D, Restif, O

الوصف: Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

العلاقة: Thompson, R. N., Hollingsworth, T. D., Isham, V., Arribas-Bel, D., Ashby, B., Britton, T., Challenor, P., Chappell, L. H. K., Clapham, H., Cunniffe, N. J., Dawid, A. P., Donnelly, C. A., Eggo, R. M., Funk, S., Gilbert, N., Glendinning, P., Gog, J. R., Hart, W. S., Heesterbeek, H. ,. Restif, O. (2020). Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 287 (1932), https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405Test.; http://hdl.handle.net/11343/251533Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405Test
http://hdl.handle.net/11343/251533Test

المؤلفون: Thompson, RN, Hollingsworth, TD, Isham, V, Arribas-Bel, D, Ashby, B, Britton, T, Challoner, P, Chappell, LHK, Clapham, H, Cunniffe, NJ, Dawid, AP, Donnelly, CA, Eggo, R, Funk, S, Gilbert, N, Glendinning, P, Gog, JR, Hart, WS, Heesterbeek, H, House, T, Keeling, M, Kiss, IZ, Kretzschmar, M, Lloyd, AL, McBryde, ES, McCaw, JM, McKinley, TJ, Miller, JC, Morris, M, ONeill, PD, Parag, KV, Pearson, CAB, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Ross, JV, Tomba, GS, Silverman, BW, Struchiner, CJ, Tildesley, MJ, Trapman, P, Webb, CR, Mollison, D, Restif, O

الوصف: Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute ‘Models for an exit strategy’ workshop (11–15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

العلاقة: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4b5a7807-12fe-48ed-8c4d-06ec2c93623eTest; https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.1405Test
https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4b5a7807-12fe-48ed-8c4d-06ec2c93623eTest

المؤلفون: Thompson, RN, Hollingsworth, TD, Isham, V, Arribas-Bel, D, Ashby, B, Britton, T, Challenor, P, Chappell, LHK, Clapham, H, Cunniffe, NJ, Dawid, AP, Donnelly, CA, Eggo, RM, Funk, S, Gilbert, N, Glendinning, P, Gog, JR, Hart, WS, Heesterbeek, H, House, T, Keeling, M, Kiss, IZ, Kretzschmar, ME, Lloyd, AL, McBryde, ES, McCaw, JM, McKinley, TJ, Miller, JC, Morris, M, O'Neill, PD, Parag, K, Pearson, CAB, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Ross, J, Tomba, GS, Silverman, BW, Struchiner, CJ, Tildesley, MJ, Trapman, P, Webb, CR, Mollison, D, Restif, O

المصدر: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , 287 (1932) (2020)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Biology, Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, exit strategy, mathematical modelling, epidemic control, uncertainty, REPRODUCTION NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD, SCHOOL CLOSURE, INFLUENZA, IMPACT, TIME, TRANSMISSION, PROBABILITY, HOUSEHOLDS, CHALLENGES

الوصف: Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute ‘Models for an exit strategy’ workshop (11–15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

وصف الملف: text

العلاقة: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811/1/rspb20201405.pdfTest; https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811Test/

الإتاحة: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811/1/rspb20201405.pdfTest
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811Test/

المؤلفون: Bales, K, Murphy, Laura, Silverman, BW

الوصف: In an effort to develop a model for estimating prevalence in a city or region of the United States, this study employed Multiple Systems Estimation, a statistical approach that uses data on known cases collected from individual agencies to estimate the number not known, with the ultimate aim of estimating the prevalence of trafficking in a region. Utilizing de-identified data provided by local non-profits and law enforcement agencies, the researchers estimated the prevalence of trafficking in the New Orleans-Metairie metropolitan statistical area. This represents one of the first attempts to use Multiple Systems Estimation to quantify human trafficking in a United States context. The article provides an account of the impediments to and limitations of conducting such an estimate, given the definitional variance and political dynamics that are endemic to anti-trafficking efforts in the United States. The authors provide recommendations for data collection and prevalence analysis that could be applied in other cities or regions of the United States as well as in other similarly-resourced environments.

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: http://shura.shu.ac.uk/25258Test/; https://shura.shu.ac.uk/25258/1/Murphy-HowManyTrafficked%28VoR%29.pdfTest; BALES, K, MURPHY, Laura and SILVERMAN, BW (2019). How many trafficked people are there in Greater New Orleans? lessons in measurement. Journal of Human Trafficking.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322705.2019.1634936Test
https://shura.shu.ac.uk/25258/1/Murphy-HowManyTrafficked%28VoR%29.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Thompson, RN, Hollingsworth, TD, Isham, V, Arribas-Bel, D, Ashby, B, Britton, T, Challenor, P, Chappell, LHK, Clapham, H, Cunniffe, NJ, Dawid, AP, Donnelly, CA, Eggo, RM, Funk, S, Gilbert, N, Glendinning, P, Gog, JR, Hart, WS, Heesterbeek, H, House, T, Keeling, M, Kiss, IZ, Kretzschmar, ME, Lloyd, AL, McBryde, ES, McCaw, JM, McKinley, TJ, Miller, JC, Morris, M, O'Neill, PD, Parag, K, Pearson, CAB, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Ross, J, Tomba, GS, Silverman, BW, Struchiner, CJ, Tildesley, MJ, Trapman, P, Webb, CR, Mollison, D, Restif, O

المصدر: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences , 287 (1932) (2020)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Science & Technology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Biology, Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, exit strategy, mathematical modelling, epidemic control, uncertainty, REPRODUCTION NUMBERS, EPIDEMIC SPREAD, SCHOOL CLOSURE, INFLUENZA, IMPACT, TIME, TRANSMISSION, PROBABILITY, HOUSEHOLDS, CHALLENGES, phil, socio

الوصف: Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute ‘Models for an exit strategy’ workshop (11–15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

العلاقة: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811/1/rspb20201405.pdfTest

الإتاحة: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10110811/1/rspb20201405.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Thompson RN, Hollingsworth TD, Isham V, Arribas-Bel D, Ashby B, Britton T, Challenor P, Chappell LHK, Clapham H, Cunniffe NJ, Dawid AP, Donnelly CA, Eggo RM, Funk S, Gilbert N, Glendinning P, Gog JR, Hart WS, Heesterbeek H, House T, Keeling M, Kiss IZ, Kretzschmar ME, Lloyd AL, McBryde ES, McCaw JM, McKinley TJ, Miller JC, Morris M, O'Neill PD, Parag KV, Pearson CAB, Pellis L, Pulliam JRC, Ross JV, Tomba GS, Silverman BW, Struchiner CJ, Tildesley MJ, Trapman P, Webb CR, Mollison D, Restif O

العلاقة: Science and Technology Facilities Council (2007- ); Hartree Centre (2012- ); http://purl.org/net/epubs/work/47215366Test

الإتاحة: http://purl.org/net/epubs/work/47215366Test

المؤلفون: Bales, K, Murphy, Laura, Silverman, BW

مصطلحات موضوعية: droit, stat

الوصف: In an effort to develop a model for estimating prevalence in a city or region of the United States, this study employed Multiple Systems Estimation, a statistical approach that uses data on known cases collected from individual agencies to estimate the number not known, with the ultimate aim of estimating the prevalence of trafficking in a region. Utilizing de-identified data provided by local non-profits and law enforcement agencies, the researchers estimated the prevalence of trafficking in the New Orleans-Metairie metropolitan statistical area. This represents one of the first attempts to use Multiple Systems Estimation to quantify human trafficking in a United States context. The article provides an account of the impediments to and limitations of conducting such an estimate, given the definitional variance and political dynamics that are endemic to anti-trafficking efforts in the United States. The authors provide recommendations for data collection and prevalence analysis that could be applied in other cities or regions of the United States as well as in other similarly-resourced environments.

العلاقة: http://shura.shu.ac.uk/25258/1/Murphy-HowManyTrafficked%28VoR%29.pdfTest

الإتاحة: http://shura.shu.ac.uk/25258/1/Murphy-HowManyTrafficked%28VoR%29.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Silverman, BW, Ramsay, JO

المصدر: Silverman , BW & Ramsay , JO 2002 , Applied Functional Data Analysis: Methods and Case Studies . Springer, New York, NY .

العلاقة: https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/e974aba3-279c-4383-83af-1e8f058fb9f1Test

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/1983/e974aba3-279c-4383-83af-1e8f058fb9f1Test
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/e974aba3-279c-4383-83af-1e8f058fb9f1Test

المؤلفون: Silverman, BW, Ramsay, JO

المساهمون: Smelser, NJ, Bates, PB

المصدر: Silverman , BW & Ramsay , JO 2001 , Functional Data Analysis . in NJ Smelser & PB Bates (eds) , International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences . Amsterdam:Elsevier .

العلاقة: https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/60eff936-77ba-499a-85db-d43711d2cc2bTest

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/1983/60eff936-77ba-499a-85db-d43711d2cc2bTest
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/60eff936-77ba-499a-85db-d43711d2cc2bTest

المؤلفون: Silverman, BW, Nason, GP

المساهمون: In Schimek, MG

المصدر: Silverman , BW & Nason , GP 2000 , Smoothing and regression: approaches computation and application . in MG In Schimek (ed.) , Wavelets for regression and other statistical problems . New York:Wiley .

العلاقة: https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8eff63e0-8af3-41f9-882d-4ab40ce5a11fTest; urn:ISBN:0471179469

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/1983/8eff63e0-8af3-41f9-882d-4ab40ce5a11fTest
https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/8eff63e0-8af3-41f9-882d-4ab40ce5a11fTest