المؤلفون: Denis Yuryevich Samygin, Nikolay Georgievich Baryshnikov, Lyudmila Alekseevna Mizjurkina

المصدر: Экономика региона, Vol 15, Iss 3, Pp 865-879 (2019)

مصطلحات موضوعية: strategic planning, scenario forecasting, project management, agriculture, food independence, empirical models, partial equilibrium models, anticipation methodology, instruments of forecasting, Regional economics. Space in economics, HT388

الوصف: The problem of efficient forecasting for the agriculture is connected with the imperfect methodological and instrumental substantiation of its development parameters. Systematisation of the western models of partial equilibrium has proved that projecting the international experience of forecasts’ substantiating on the Russian agrarian economy reduces the forecasts’ quality and distorts the predicted situation for the food market. That happens because such models are based on different criteria and objectives for the farmers’ development. We developed modern models for substantiating the parameters of agricultural development and scenario forecasts. The research objectives are connected with generalisation, systematisation and critical assessment of the instruments used for agricultural forecasting in Russian and foreign practice. We focused on shaping the substantially different instruments of scenario forecasting and model calculations. We applied the method of econometric diagnostics, the partial equilibrium model, and Cobb-Douglas production function. We used the data of financial reporting of 250 agricultural manufacturers from Penza oblast for the period from 2006 to 2016 as the study’s information basis. Further, we developed a set of scenario forecasting models, which are significantly different. These models have the functional capabilities of assessing the prospects of the agricultural development taking into account the attained production level, agrarian market’s environment, state measures, key factors of the agricultural products’ output. Based on the assessment of these models and diagnosed results, we concluded that the existing trends of forward movement in terms of the agricultural production’s supply are insufficient, as they do not fully satisfy the demand. We revealed the elasticity and disproportionality of the relationships between the growth rates of supply and demand in the agro-food market. Moreover, we collected the data on the qualitative dependence of the activities’ results in total on the factors of agricultural production and the state support measures. These factors show the threshold of expediency for additional investments of land, labour, capital and subsidies. This information will allow improving the economic mechanism of forecasting the agricultural strategic development. Additionally, it will contribute to strengthening the focus on the outcome of the manufacturers’ activities and increasing the level of achievement of the anticipated indicators.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: http://www.economyofregion.com/data/jarticles/3202.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/2072-6414Test; https://doaj.org/toc/2411-1406Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/949c9c764cf54a548ee216cf5d77f5caTest

المؤلفون: Matthew Cantele, Payal Bal, Tom Kompas, Michalis Hadjikakou, Brendan Wintle

المصدر: Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 9, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: CGE, computable general equilibrium, partial equilibrium, integrated assessment, systematic review, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5

الوصف: Abstract Equilibrium models (EMs) are frequently employed to examine the potential impacts of economic, energy, and trade policies as well as form the foundation of most integrated assessment models. Despite their central role coupling economic and environmental systems, environmental scientists are largely unfamiliar with the structure and methodology underpinning EMs, which serves as a barrier to interdisciplinary collaboration and model improvement. In this study we systematically extract data from 10 years of published EMs with a focus on how these models have been extended beyond their economic origins to encompass environmentally relevant sectors of interest. The results indicate that there is far greater spatial coverage of high income countries compared to low income countries, with notable gaps in Central America, Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. We also find a high degree of aggregation within production inputs and sectoral outputs, particularly within the context of global socioeconomic scenarios. For example, we were unable to identify a single temporally dynamic study that distinguished between products arising from managed versus natural forest, or pastures relative to natural grasslands. Due to the necessary breadth and associated knowledge gaps within a model of the entire global economy, we see considerable potential for cross‐disciplinary innovation as natural scientists gain familiarity into the role these models play in bridging the nexus between socioeconomic systems and environmental change.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/c45dfd73f3fa48bf96a2f3dc8d327d03Test

المؤلفون: Zetterholm, Jonas, Bryngemark, Elina, Ahlström, Johan, 1990, Soderholm, Patrik, Harvey, Simon, 1965, Wetterlund, Elisabeth

المصدر: Sustainability. 12(17)

مصطلحات موضوعية: partial equilibrium, supply chain, price formation, soft-linking, biofuel

الوصف: Biofuels and biochemicals play significant roles in the transition towards a fossil-free society. However, large-scale biorefineries are not yet cost-competitive with their fossil-fuel counterparts, and it is important to identify biorefinery concepts with high economic performance. For evaluating early-stage biorefinery concepts, one needs to consider not only the technical performance and process costs but also the economic performance of the full supply chain and the impacts on feedstock and product markets. This article presents and demonstrates a conceptual interdisciplinary framework that can constitute the basis for evaluations of the full supply-chain performance of biorefinery concepts. This framework considers the competition for biomass across sectors, assumes exogenous end-use product demand, and incorporates various geographical and technical constraints. The framework is demonstrated empirically through a case study of a sawmill-integrated biorefinery producing liquefied biomethane from forestry and forest industry residues. The case study results illustrate that acknowledging biomass market effects in the supply chain evaluation implies changes in both biomass prices and the allocation of biomass across sectors. The proposed framework should facilitate the identification of biorefinery concepts with a high economic performance which are robust to feedstock price changes caused by the increase in biomass demand.

وصف الملف: electronic

الوصول الحر: https://research.chalmers.se/publication/519469Test
https://research.chalmers.se/publication/519469/file/519469_Fulltext.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Gocht, Alexander, Consmüller, Nicola, Thom, Ferike, Grethe, Harald

مصطلحات موضوعية: Text, ddc:630, ddc:330, Genome editing -- CRISPR/Cas -- asynchrony regulatory -- trade distortion -- economic modelling -- partial equilibrium model CAPRI -- agricultural economic and environmental impact assessment -- Genom-Editierung -- CRISPR/Cas -- Asynchrone Regulierung -- Handelsverzerrung -- ökonomische Modellierung -- partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell CAPRI -- agrarökonomische und ökologische Folgenabschätzung

الوصف: Genome edited crops are on the verge of being placed on the market and their agricultural and food products will thus be internationally traded soon. National regulation, however, diverges regarding the classification of genome edited crops. Major countries such as the US and Brazil do not specifically regulate genome edited crops, while in the European Union they fall under GMO legislation, according to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). As it is in some cases impossible to analytically distinguish products from genome edited plants compared to non-genome edited plants, EU importers may fear the risk of violating EU legislation. They may choose to not import anymore agricultural and food products based on crops, for which genome edited varieties are available. As a consequence, crop products, for which the EU is currently a net importer, would become more expensive in the EU and production would intensify. Furthermore, strong substitu-tion among products covered and not covered by genome editing would occur in consumption, production and trade. We analyse the effects of such a cease of EU imports for cereals and soy on the EU agricultural sector with the comparative static agricultural sector equilibrium model CA-PRI. Our results indicate that effects on agricultural and food prices as well as farm income are strong, and the intensification of EU agriculture may result in negative net environmental effects in the EU as well as increases in global greenhouse gas emissions. This suggests that the trade effects should be taken into account when developing domestic regulation for genome edited crops. ; Zahlreiche genom-editierte Kulturpflanzen stehen kurz vor ihrer Marktreife und werden daher bald ihren Weg in den internationalen Agrarhandel finden. Gegenwärtig gibt es jedoch große Unterschiede in der rechtlichen Einstufung dieser Produkte. Während beispielsweise in den USA und Brasilien genom-editierte Pflanzen keiner speziellen Regulierung unterliegen, werden sie in der EU nach dem EuGH-Urteil als gentechnisch ...

وصف الملف: 38 Seiten

العلاقة: https://doi.org/10.3220/WP1595233767000Test; https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:253-202007-dn062466-9Test; https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00063415Test; https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00032595/dn062466.pdfTest; https://d-nb.info/1215625340Test/

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.3220/WP1595233767000Test
https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:253-202007-dn062466-9Test
https://www.openagrar.de/receive/openagrar_mods_00063415Test
https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00032595/dn062466.pdfTest
https://d-nb.info/1215625340Test/

المؤلفون: Hinkel, Niklas

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, C61, O13, O55, Q16, Q18, Biofuel, Land Use, Energy Economics, Partial Equilibrium Model, Zamb

الوصف: In face of increased efforts to mitigate climate change, biofuels may be included in reduction plans forgreenhouse gas emissions. Feedstock for first generation biofuels and food crops both use arable land andmay compete for it. Also, fuel is an input for the production and transport of food. The purpose of thispaper is to quantify with empirical data how these two aspects affect market outcomes and to introduce acounterfactual setting where the latter aspect dominates the former. The setting allows an expansion ofbiofuel production to increase food production by lowering costs of production and transport. Namely,lower costs increase market access, allowing a higher utilization of idle production capacities for foodcrops. For this quantification, I develop an open market, welfare maximizing, partial equilibrium modelfor three interdependent goods fuel, fuel feedstock, and food (these goods are represented by diesel/biodiesel,palm oil, and cassava/maize respectively). The model is calibrated to Zambia, which exhibits the necessaryunderlying conditions of underutilized agricultural capacity, high transport costs, and low exports offood. Compared to a baseline, model results show the counterfactual switch from fossil diesel to biodieselto reduce the diesel price by51%. This increases food supply (cassava and maize combined) by0.4%and decreases related prices by3%. Overall welfare increases by9.9%. If additionally, a higher worldmarket price of maize renders exports just profitable, overall welfare continues to gain9.9%, domesticfood supply rises by0.3%, and related prices drop by2%, but food supply including exports grows by32%. Furthermore, the introduction of a palm oil based biodiesel sector eliminates import dependency onfossil diesel and palm oil.

العلاقة: Series: EWI Working Paper; No. 22/02; gbv-ppn:1793524963; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/268215Test; RePEc:ris:ewikln:2022_002

الإتاحة: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/268215Test

المؤلفون: Bekkers, Eddy, Cariola, Gianmarco

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, F13, F17, O19, LDC graduation, tariff preferences, partial equilibrium model

الوصف: Several Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) will graduate from the LDC status in the coming decade implying that they will lose preferential access to export markets. We quantify the expected impact of LDC graduation on exports of graduating and non-graduating LDCs incorporating detailed preference utilization data in a partial equilibrium model. We compare the results under actual and full preference utilization rates. Separately, we explore how underutilization of tariff preferences affects the exports of countries benefiting from such preferences. The analysis generates four main results. First, according to our projections, graduation will have a negative impact on the exports of graduating LDCs (more than US$ 6 billion export loss or 6% of exports), especially in the clothing sector. Second, the adverse trade effects of graduation would be overestimated by 30% under full instead of actual utilization rates. Third, our projections suggest that the increase in exports of non-graduating LDCs following graduation of other LDCs would be limited, implying that non-graduating poorer LDCs may hardly benefit from graduation of richer LDCs. Fourth, our projections suggest that increasing the utilization of LDC preferences would have positive trade effects. The exports of LDCs would increase by almost US$ 7 billion if they simultaneously switched to a full utilization regime.

العلاقة: Series: WTO Staff Working Paper; No. ERSD-2022-5; gbv-ppn:1801856508; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/254328Test; RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ERSD20225

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.30875/25189808-2022-5Test
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/254328Test

المؤلفون: Meike Guenther, Caroline Saunders, Peter Tait

المصدر: Australian and New Zealand Journal of European Studies, Vol 8, Iss 1 (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: developing countries, new zealand, european union, meat and dairy consumption, trade liberalisation, partial equilibrium model, Social Sciences, Europe (General), D900-2009

الوصف: This study assessed the potential impacts of changes in meat and dairy consumption and production, as well as different trade policies in China and India, on agricultural trade in New Zealand (NZ) and the European Union (EU-27), using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). This partial equilibrium model forecasts international trade, production and consumption of agricultural commodities. Several scenarios were developed simulating different ranges of consumption and production of meat and dairy commodities, as well as full trade liberalisation in China and India. Results showed that changing consumption, production and trade patterns in India and China could lead to higher producer returns from meat and dairy commodities in NZ and the EU-27 by 2020. However, if China and India significantly increase meat and dairy consumption and production simultaneously, producer returns in NZ and the EU-27 could decline.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: https://openjournals.library.sydney.edu.au/ANZJES/article/view/15158Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1837-2147Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1836-1803Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/ce83e79c4e2641b19b1e310bc3312f8dTest

المؤلفون: Chambers, Robert G., author

المصدر: Competitive Agents in Certain and Uncertain Markets, 2021, ill.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190063016.003.0007Test

المؤلفون: Rajagopal, Deepak

المصدر: Journal of Industrial Ecology. 18(2)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Climate Action, industrial ecology, environmental policy, partial equilibrium, emissions, energy, life cycle assessment, Environmental Sciences

الوصف: The application of life cycle assessment (LCA) in a policy context highlights the need for a "consequential" LCA (CLCA), which differs from an "attributional" LCA (ALCA). Although CLCA offers some advantages over ALCA, such as a capacity to account for emissions resulting from both substitution and price effects, it entails additional assumptions and cost and may yield estimates that are more uncertain (e.g., estimates of impact of biofuel policies on greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions). We illustrate how a CLCA that relies on simple partial equilibrium models could provide important insights on the direction and magnitude of price effects while limiting the complexity of CLCA. We describe how such a CLCA, when applied early in the policy life cycle, could help identify policy formulations that reduce the magnitude of adverse price effects relative to the beneficial substitution effect on emissions because-as the experience with biofuel regulations indicates-regulating price effects is costly and controversial. We conclude that the salient contribution of CLCA in the policy process might lie in warning policy makers about the vulnerabilities in a policy with regard to environmental impact and to help modify potentially counterproductive formulations rather than in deriving the precise estimates for uncertain variables, such as the life cycle GHG intensity of product or average indirect emissions. © 2013 by Yale University.

وصف الملف: application/pdf

الوصول الحر: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9gr8t0q6Test

المؤلفون: Dietrich, Jan Philipp, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Weindl, Isabelle, Humpenöder, Florian, Stevanovic, Miodrag, Kreidenweis, Ulrich, Wang, Xiaoxi, Karstens, Kristine, Mishra, Abhijeet, Beier, Felicitas Dorothea, Molina Bacca, Edna Johanna, von Jeetze, Patrick, Windisch, Michael, Crawford, Michael Scott, Klein, David, Singh, Vartika, Ambrósio, Geanderson, Araujo, Ewerton, Biewald, Anne, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Popp, Alexander

مصطلحات موضوعية: landuse, modeling, nlp, partial equilibrium

الوصف: changed inputs new default LPJmL version with growing season adaptation (gsadapt) on 51_nitrogen parameter change in rescaled_jan21, now including regionalized climate-dependent leaching factors config Update default configuration to new input data (especially cellular inputs) including all module realization updates (14_yield, 22_processing, 30_crop, 38_factor_costs, 39_landconversion). Moreover, climate impatcs (cc options for biophysical inputs) are activiated as default. New best_calib calibration routine is activated as default. config peatland module on by default (cfg$gms$peatland <- "on") config update default setting for 2nd generation bioenergy demand and GHG prices config update default setting for the 42_water_demand module (to all_sectors_aug13) scripts output/extra/disaggregation.R updated to account for country-specific set-aside shares in post-processing scripts output/extra/disaggregation.R updated to account for sub-categories of "forestry" scripts Default recalibration routine does not ...

العلاقة: https://github.com/magpiemodel/magpie/tree/v4.4.0Test; https://zenodo.org/communities/pikpotsdamTest; https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1418752Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.577630610.5281/zenodo.1418752Test
https://zenodo.org/record/5776306Test