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1تقرير
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley
مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, F13, F14, rice, commercial opening, partial equilibrium, microeconomic simulation, non-tariff measures
الوصف: A significant question in agricultural economic research is understanding how economic shocks affect the different links of a productive chain, since the gains and losses induced by them might spread in a non-uniform way among the different actors. In the face of a scenario that advocates a possible intensification in the facilitation of Brazilian rice imports, this study assessed the effects of a less restrictive commercial policy in the rice market in Brazil. A partial equilibrium model is adopted as the empirical strategy, which allows microeconomic simulations commonly used by the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) in its commercial policy definition and in its arguments in litigations with the World Trade Organization (WTO). The results show that even under unfavorable conditions, represented by a high elasticity of substitution and high sensitivity of supply and demand to prices, and still under a highly permissive commercial policy, the impact on domestic and Mercosur producers is low. The consumer tends to increase their consumption with the price reduction; however, the magnitude of that reduction slightly affects the inflation indicators.
العلاقة: Series: Texto para Discussão; No. 2960; gbv-ppn:1882384520; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/285398Test
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2رسالة جامعية
المؤلفون: MENDES, Krisley
مرشدي الرسالة: HIDALGO, Álvaro Barrantes
المصدر: Repositório Institucional da UFPEUniversidade Federal de PernambucoUFPE.
مصطلحات موضوعية: Perfil de comércio, Desagregação geográfica, Municípios, Zonas de especialização, Salários, Modelo gravitacional, Comércio exterior - Promoção, Incorporação municipal, Comércio exterior - Regulamentação, Foreign trade, Trade profile, Geographic breakdown, Counties, Zones of specialization, Gravity model
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O objetivo desta tese é identificar no Brasil a heterogeneidade do perfil de comércio exterior quando avaliado em níveis menores de agregação geográfica e de seus efeitos sobre os salários e prêmios por qualificação, determinando as diferentes zonas de especialização no sentido de Venables e Limão (2002) e avaliando os fatores de atração e resistência ao comércio. O estudo leva em conta a posição geográfica com dados no nível de municípios, para determinar os diferentes padrões de inserção regional ao comércio exterior – isto porque, se as diferentes regiões não são igualmente ligadas ao comércio exterior, os efeitos do comércio podem ser regionalmente heterogêneos. A tese se compõe de três ensaios. No primeiro, são analisados as características e o comportamento do volume de comércio internacional praticado nos estados e municípios brasileiros em 2000 e 2010, de modo a avaliar a heterogeneidade presente no perfil de comércio. A estratégia empírica consistiu no cálculo de indicadores de comércio exterior. Os resultados confirmam que quando se analisam níveis menores de agregação geográfica as especificidades regionais se revelam, diferindo significativamente dos resultados nacionais. Isso permite inferir que os efeitos do comércio podem não ser igualmente distribuídos. No segundo ensaio, é analisada a relação entre salários e comércio exterior, a fim de determinar zonas de especialização. O modelo teórico provém de Venables e Limão (2002) e a estratégia empírica é tomada de Chiquiar (2008). A análise econométrica é realizada pelo método dos mínimos quadrados generalizados factíveis (MQGF), com a avaliação de viés de variáveis omitidas proposta por Oster (2014) e descontando-se os determinantes individuais dos salários. Os resultados confirmam a existência de respostas heterogêneas dos salários e prêmios por qualificação a variações no comércio exterior, a depender da posição geográfica. Estes resultados permitiram identificar zonas de especialização. As zonas mais abertas ao comércio exterior nas quais se podem identificar respostas Stolper–Samuelson agregam principalmente mesorregiões no Sul e algumas no Sudeste, enquanto as zonas mais fechadas a esse comércio concentram-se no Centro-Oeste, Norte e Nordeste, onde a exposição ao comércio parece intensificar as desigualdades salariais interqualificações. No terceiro ensaio, buscou-se compreender os determinantes dos fluxos de comércio internacional a fim de examinar o efeito da integração e as resistências estruturais dadas pelos custos de comércio. Esta análise foi realizada para o Brasil e suas macrorregiões, com dados no nível municipal. O trabalho utiliza o chamado modelo gravitacional como estratégia empírica, sendo testadas oito de suas versões. O modelo regredido com variáveis instrumentais se mostrou consistente em relação ao modelo por MQO pelo teste de Hausmann. Os resultados mostram que o fluxo de comércio apresenta alta resistência em relação à distância e é dirigido mais ao Mercosul que ao resto do mundo. A evolução no decênio mostra que a resistência do fluxo de comércio à distância foi reduzida e a dependência da destinação ao Mercosul também se reduziu. Na análise por macrorregiões, as regressões sugerem que nas regiões Centro-Oeste e Nordeste os fatores de atração aumentaram e os fatores de resistência se reduziram, enquanto Sudeste e Sul desaceleraram sua sensibilidade à exposição ao comércio. Já o Norte permaneceu relativamente estável, tanto em relação a fatores de estímulo quanto a fatores de resistência.
The objective of the present thesis was to identify the heterogeneity of the foreign trade profile in Brazil when assessed in lower levels of geographical aggregation and their effects on salaries and skill premiums, determining the different zones of specialization as conceived by Venables and Limão (2002) and assessing the factors of attraction and resistance to trade. The study took account of geographic position using municipal-level data to determine the different patterns of regional involvement in foreign trade – this is because, if the different regions are not equally engaged in foreign trade, then the effects of trade may be regionally heterogeneous. The thesis comprised three investigations. In the first, the characteristics and behavior of the volume of international trade carried out in Brazilian states and cities in 2000 and 2010 were analyzed to assess heterogeneity in the trade profile. The empirical strategy entailed calculation of foreign trade indicators. More specifically, the coefficients of openness, the product and destination Gini–Hirschman indices (PGI and DGI), the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) index and the intra-industry trade (IIT) index. The results confirmed that when lower levels of geographical aggregation were analyzed, regional specificities emerged that differed significantly to national results. It can therefore be inferred that the effects of trade may not be equally distributed. In the second investigation, the relationship between salaries and foreign trade was analyzed to determine zones of specialization. The theoretical model was derived from Venables and Limão (2002) while the empirical strategy was taken from Chiquiar (2008). The econometric analysis was performed using the feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method with assessment of omitted variable bias as defined by Oster (2014), controlling for individual determinants of salaries. The results confirmed the existence of heterogeneous responses of salaries and skill premiums to variations in foreign trade that were geographically dependent. These results allowed zones of specialization to be identified. The zones with greatest openness to foreign trade (in which Stolper–Samuelson responses were identified) encompassed mainly mesoregions in the South and some in the Southeast, whereas the zones more closed to trade were situated mainly in the Midwest, North and Northeast, where exposure to trade appeared to intensify interskill salary inequalities. In the third investigation, the determinants of international flows were investigated to examine the effect of integration and the structural resistance created by the costs of trade. This analysis was conducted for Brazil and its macroregion based on municipal level data. The study employed the gravity model as an empirical strategy and eight versions were tested. The instrumental variables regression model proved consistent in relation to the model by OLS using the Hausmann test. Trade flow exhibited high resistance in relation to distance and was aimed more at Mercosur than the rest of the world. The ten-year evolution revealed that resistance of the flow of distance trade declined and dependence on the Mercosur market decreased. On the analysis by microregion, the regressions suggested that the factors of attraction increased and factors of resistance decreased in the Mid-West and Northeast regions. Thus, while the Southeast and South regions decelerated their sensitivity to trade exposure, the Mid-West and Northeast showed more favorable conditions for expansion. The North, however, remained relatively stable in terms of both stimulus and resistance factors. -
3دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley1,2 (AUTHOR) krisley@unb.br
المصدر: Agribusiness. Jun2024, p1. 22p. 11 Illustrations, 1 Chart.
مستخلص: Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur–European Union Biregional Association Agreement provides for the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of nontariff measures between the parties. Because the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. A constant, nested, multisectoral, and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured incorporating uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets. The model allows projecting the price effect (Armington) and the preference effect in the
market shares of Brazil, Mercosur, and the EU on the domestic market. The results, in the most ambitious scenario of the agreement and in the most conservative estimate, show that Brazil would lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market. This means reducing Brazilian production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The national agricultural link in this scenario would lose 15% of the current dairy demand. This loss benefits the EU, which would participate in the domestic market with amarket share of 58.75%. Mercosur would add 13.41 percentage points to its current share of the Brazilian market [EconLit Citations: F13, F14]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]: Copyright of Agribusiness is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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4دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley, Luchine, André
المصدر: Journal of International Trade Law and Policy, 2020, Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 139-157.
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5دورية أكاديمية
المصدر: Revista de Economia Contemporânea; Rev. Econ. Contemp., v. 26, 2022 ; Journal of Contemporary Economics; Rev. Econ. Contemp., v. 26, 2022 ; 1980-5527
مصطلحات موضوعية: specialization zones, input prices, distance, municipalities, wages, F11, F14, F16, J31
الوصف: This study aims to assess wage and skill premium responses to international trade in Brazil, determining different local specialization patterns with municipal data. We followed the theoretical model developed by Venables and Limão, who state that distance is a non-neutral variable in determining trade patterns. We used Chiquiar’s empirical model, which includes pooled regression with microdata and feasible generalized least squares in three steps. Selection bias and omitted variable biases were evaluated based on Redding and Schott and Oster. Results show that wage and skill premium responses to international trade are heterogeneous and depend on the geographic location. International trade seems to help reducing interregional inequalities in Brazil. However, it seems to intensify inter-skill wage inequalities in more distant zones, like Midwest and North Brazil. Thus, the reduction in income inequality due to a greater trade liberalization is not homogeneous in all regions of this developing country. Therefore, policies that geographically spread the benefits of international trade within Brazil would have to consider the occurrence of these regionally heterogeneous responses.==============================Resumo: O objetivo deste artigo é identificar no Brasil as respostas dos salários e dos prêmios por qualificação ao comércio internacional, determinando os diferentes padrões locais de especialização com dados em nível municipal. O modelo teórico foi desenvolvido por Venables e Limão, os quais sustentam que a distância é variável não neutra na determinação dos padrões comerciais. O modelo empírico foi tomado de Chiquiar e consiste em uma regressão pooled com microdados por mínimos quadrados generalizados factíveis em três etapas. Vieses de seleção e de variáveis omitidas foram avaliados, apoiando-se em Redding e Schott e Oster. Os resultados apontam que as respostas dos salários e prêmios por qualificação ao comércio exterior são heterogêneas, a depender da posição geográfica. O comércio ...
وصف الملف: application/pdf
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6تقرير
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley
مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, F13, F1, powdered milk, trade opening, dairy, Brazil, European Union
الوصف: Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur-European Union bi-regional Association Agreement predict the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of non-tariff measures (MNTs) between them. Given that the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. For this, a constant, nested, multisectoral and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured and incorporates uncertainty in the Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets (2018). The model allows decompose the effect in relative prices (Armington effect) and what we call the preference effect in the market shares of Brazil, Mercosur and the EU in the different production stages. The analysis is carried out in three scenarios: removal of tariffs, removal of MNTs, and removal of tariff and MNTs concomitantly. The results show that the elimination of the tariff would make Brazil lose 6.7 percentage points in its downstream market share, Mercosur would lose 1 percentage point of its current market share and the EU would participate in the Brazilian market with 8.2%. The national agricultural link would lose 1.42% of demand from Brazilian dairy. When only MNTs are removed, the Brazilian market share is reduced by 51.16 percentage points, in the most conservative estimate. This measure would favor Mercosur, which would increase its participation by 49.42 percentage points, while the EU would participate with 2.23%. The concomitant removal of tariffs and MNTs would make Brazil lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market, in the most conservative hypothesis. This means reducing production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The domestic agricultural link would lose 15% of current dairy demand. The loss occurs ...
العلاقة: Series: Texto para Discussão; No. 2816; gbv-ppn:1827051299; 10419/284872; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/284872Test
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7تقرير
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley, Luchine, André Araújo
مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, F13, F14, ad valorem equivalent, non-tariff measures, imperfect market, uncertainty
الوصف: This study estimated ad-valorem equivalent (AVE) for non-tariff measures (NTM) applied by 81 countries to 5.321 products in six-digit products of the harmonized system (HS). For that, the study follow the method developed by Kee, Nicita e Olarreaga (2009) and the contributions brought by Beghin, Disdier e Marette (2015) to consider imperfect markets. The Monte Carlo method was applied to consider the uncertainty in the elasticities values, following Hallren e Opanasets (2018). The results show that the average AVE of the entire sample of countries is 104.89%, being more intense in the manufacturing sector. Negative AVEs are found mainly in the products of the chemical industry, electrical material and footwear. For Brazil, the results show that, on average, imports from the country are more expensive by 89%, being more intense also in manufactured products. The HS chapters most affected in Brazil are dairy products, metals (lead), cereal-based preparations and special fabrics. The sensitivity analysis shows that most AVE obtained by the employed methodology remains stable when elasticities vary. This study offers three contributions: i) the AVEs are estimated for products in the more actual version of HS, published in 2017; ii) allows negative AVEs, considering imperfect markets for a wide range of NTMs; and iii) evaluates the sensitivity of AVEs to variations in elasticities, admitting uncertainty.
العلاقة: Series: Texto para Discussão; No. 2710; gbv-ppn:1780808992; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249226Test; RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2710
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8دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley, Luchine, Andre
الوصف: Milk is one of the few agricultural products in which Brazil is not competitive. The domestic market is served by domestic production and imports from Argentina and Uruguay. The Mercosur-European Union Bi-regional Association Agreement provides for the elimination of tariffs and the harmonization of non-tariff measures (NTMs) between the parties. Because the EU is one of the most competitive regions in the world market for powdered milk, this study analyzes the effects of the agreement on the links in this production chain in the Brazilian market. A constant, nested, multisectoral, and vertically integrated elasticity of substitution model is structured incorporating uncertainty in the estimates of Armington elasticities through Monte Carlo simulations, as in Hallren and Opanasets (2018). The model allows projecting the price effect (Armington) and the preference effect in the market shares of Brazil, Mercosur, and the EU on the domestic market. The results, in the most ambitious scenario of the agreement and in the most conservative estimate, show that Brazil would lose 71.7 percentage points in the domestic market. This means reducing Brazilian production by 475 thousand tons of powdered milk. The national agricultural link in this scenario would lose 15% of the current dairy demand. This loss benefits the EU, which would participate in the national market with a market share of 58.75%. Mercosur would add 13.41 percentage points to its current share of the Brazilian market.
العلاقة: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338546/files/slide_28.pdfTest; http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/338546Test
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9دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley
المساهمون: NU. CEPAL, IPEA
مصطلحات موضوعية: LECHE EN POLVO, INDUSTRIA LECHERA, PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL, COMERCIO INTERNACIONAL, IMPORTACIONES, MERCOSUR, UNION EUROPEA, ARANCELES, BARRERAS NO ARANCELARIAS, DRIED MILK, DAIRY INDUSTRY, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, IMPORTS, EUROPEAN UNION, TARIFFS, NON-TARIFF BARRIERS
الوصف: O leite é um dos poucos produtos agrícolas em que o Brasil não é competitivo. O mercado interno é atendido pela produção nacional e por importações provenientes principalmente da Argentina e do Uruguai. O Acordo de Associação Birregional (AAB) Mercosul-União Europeia prevê a eliminação de tarifas e a compatibilização de medidas não tarifárias (MNTs) entre as partes. Dado que a União Europeia é uma das regiões mais competitivas no mercado mundial de leite em pó, este estudo analisa os efeitos do acordo sobre os elos dessa cadeia produtiva no mercado brasileiro. Para isso, é estruturado um modelo de elasticidade de substituição constante (ESC), aninhado, multissetorial e verticalmente integrado que incorpora incerteza nas estimativas das elasticidades de Armington através de simulações de Monte Carlo, como em Hallren e Opanasets (2018). O modelo permite projetar o efeito preço (Armington) e o efeito preferência, na participação do Brasil, do Mercosul e da União Europeia, nos diferentes elos da cadeia. A análise é feita em três cenários: remoção de tarifas, de MNTs, e de tarifas e MNTs concomitantemente. Os resultados mostram que a eliminação da tarifa faria o Brasil perder 6,7 pontos percentuais (p.p.) de sua atual participação no mercado nacional, o Mercosul perderia 1 p.p. e a União Europeia passaria a participar com 8,2%. O elo agrícola nacional perderia 1,42% da demanda proveniente dos laticínios brasileiros. No cenário em que apenas as MNTs são removidas, a participação brasileira se reduz em 51,16 p.p., na estimativa mais conservadora. Essa medida favoreceria o Mercosul, que aumentaria sua participação em 49,42 p.p., enquanto a União Europeia participaria com 2,23%. A remoção concomitante de tarifas e MNTs faria o Brasil perder 71,7 p.p. no mercado interno, na hipótese mais conservadora. Isso significaria reduzir a produção em 475 mil toneladas de leite em pó. O elo agrícola nesse cenário perderia 15% da demanda atual dos laticínios. A perda ocorre beneficiando a União Europeia, que participaria do mercado ...
وصف الملف: pdf; application/pdf
العلاقة: https://hdl.handle.net/11362/49058Test; LC/BRS/TS.2022/11
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10تقرير
المؤلفون: Mendes, Krisley, Luchine, André Araújo
مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, F13, F14, Brazil, inventory approach, non-tariff measures, import
الوصف: In international literature, Brazil ranks among the most prolific countries in requesting non-tariff measures (NTMs) on their imports. When this incidence is translated into ad valorem equivalent, studies show that the costs that these measures represent place the country among the world's outliers in trade protection. This work described the incidence of NTMs that Brazil imposed its imports in the 2016-2018 at different levels of aggregation: by group of NTMs, by sector, by section of the Harmonized System (HS), by six-digit products of the HS and by partner country. The methodology is based on the inventory approach, of a descriptive and exploratory nature, with the obtainment of the frequency indicator, the coverage ratio, and the prevalence score. The results show that Brazil is more demanding in NTMs for the import of agricultural products, especially live animals, fats and oils and soybeans. In two digits of the HS, fish, meat preparations, meats and offal, coffee and fruits stand out. Among the manufactures, products from the chemical industry and vehicles stand out. In the extractive industry, more NTMs are required for bamboo and wood slabs and corrugated paper boxes.
العلاقة: Series: Texto para Discussão; No. 2617; gbv-ppn:1743911289; http://hdl.handle.net/10419/240811Test
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