المؤلفون: Coibion, O, Gorodnichenko, Y, Weber, M

المصدر: International Journal of Central Banking. 2022(72)

مصطلحات موضوعية: E31, C83, D84, J26, Economic Theory, Applied Economics, Banking, Finance and Investment

الوصف: Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the COVID-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis affects households’ expectations. We provide random subsets of participants in the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations of information about the severity of the pandemic, recent actions by the Federal Reserve, stimulus measures, as well as recommendations from health officials. This experiment allows us to assess to what extent these policy announcements alter the beliefs and spending plans of households. In short, they do not, contrary to the powerful effects they have in standard macroeconomic models.

وصف الملف: application/pdf

الوصول الحر: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0zp1944kTest

المؤلفون: Sebbesen, Anja, Oberhofer, Harald

مصطلحات موضوعية: C23 Single Equation Models, Single Variables Models with Panel Data, Longitudinal Data, Spatial Time Series, D84 Expectations, Speculations, L14 Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks, business expectation formation, input-output linkages, propagation, space-time model, spillovers

الوصف: Data sets employed in the paper "The propagation of business expectations within the European Union" by Anja Sebbesen and Harald Oberhofer. Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2024. Country-industry information on business expectations and further covariates (main_data.csv) is linked with country-industry information on input-output linkages (weights matrices). For more information see readme_so.txt file. ...

العلاقة: https://journaldata.zbw.eu/dataset/1f46e069-7106-4d41-9038-60c70e4efb49/resource/c9678361-a5a0-44e0-ac88-5a1c9383bb80/download/readme_so.txtTest; https://journaldata.zbw.eu/dataset/1f46e069-7106-4d41-9038-60c70e4efb49/resource/409710ff-ffb9-43f4-aa6f-22c1b7bf22f1/download/data_propagation_business_expectations.zipTest

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2024134.0820963048Test
https://journaldata.zbw.eu/dataset/the-propagation-of-business-expectations-within-the-european-union-replication-dataTest

المؤلفون: Kiessling, Lukas, Pinger, Pia, Seegers, Philipp, Bergerhoff, Jan

المصدر: Kiessling , L , Pinger , P , Seegers , P & Bergerhoff , J 2024 , ' Gender differences in wage expectations and negotiation ' , Labour Economics , vol. 87 , 102505 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102505Test

مصطلحات موضوعية: atira/keywords/jel_classifications/d81, name=d81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, atira/keywords/jel_classifications/d84, name=d84 - "Expectations, Speculations", atira/keywords/jel_classifications/i21, name=i21 - Analysis of Education, atira/keywords/jel_classifications/i23, name=i23 - Higher Education and Research Institutions, atira/keywords/jel_classifications/j13, name=j13 - "Fertility, Family Planning, Child Care, Children, Youth", atira/keywords/jel_classifications/j30, name=j30 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General, Gender gap, Negotiations, Subjective wage expectations

الوصف: This paper presents evidence from a large-scale study on gender differences in expected wages before labor market entry. Based on data for over 15,000 students, we document a significant and large gender gap in wage expectations that resembles actual wage differences, prevails across subgroups, and along the entire distribution. Over the life-cycle this gap amounts to roughly half a million Euros. Our findings further suggest that expected wages relate to expected asking and reservation wages and that a difference in plans about "boldness" during prospective wage negotiations pertains to gender difference in expected and actual wages. Given the importance of wage expectations for labor market decisions, household bargaining, and wage setting, our results provide an explanation for persistent gender inequalities.

العلاقة: https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/00c98a35-2829-4763-a816-e6347e353fb4Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102505Test
https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/en/publications/00c98a35-2829-4763-a816-e6347e353fb4Test

المؤلفون: King King Li, Bo Huang

المصدر: China Economic Quarterly International, Vol 3, Iss 2, Pp 144-154 (2023)

مصطلحات موضوعية: C93, D84, E2, E3, E71, Economic theory. Demography, HB1-3840, Economic growth, development, planning, HD72-88

الوصف: How will the outbreak of Covid-19 affect people's expectations on the macroeconomy? We conduct an online experiment in China to investigate the relationship between ambiguity aversion, risk aversion, and expectations about the macroeconomy after the onset of Covid-19 which can be considered an uncertainty shock. Our study differs from previous studies as we elicit individuals' preferences in terms of ambiguity aversion and risk aversion, and test how these preferences drive macroeconomic expectations. We find that ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the effect of Covid-19 on the economic growth rate. Ambiguity averse subjects are more likely to reduce consumption and expect lower savings in response to the outbreak. More risk taking subjects have more optimistic expectations on the macroeconomy, and they are less likely to reduce consumption, investment, and savings.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000175Test; https://doaj.org/toc/2666-9331Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/ce9566c9637a4c8dbf6d3555f5f87fc9Test

المؤلفون: Focacci, Antonio

المصدر: China Finance Review International, 2023, Vol. 13, Issue 2, pp. 157-182.

الوصول الحر: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/CFRI-07-2022-0110Test

المؤلفون: Tahir, Samya, Ehsan, Sadaf, Hassan, Mohammad Kabir, Zaman, Qamar Uz

المصدر: Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 2021, Vol. 30, Issue 1, pp. 2-25.

الوصول الحر: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/JABES-07-2021-0085Test

المؤلفون: Cordes, Charlotte, Friedrichsen, Jana, Schudy, Simeon

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, C91, D83, D84, D90, D91, anticipatory utility, beliefs, memory, motivated cognition, procrastination, real effort, task allocation

الوصف: Procrastination is often attributed to time-inconsistent preferences but may also arise when individuals derive anticipatory utility from holding optimistic beliefs about their future effort costs. This study provides a rigorous empirical test for this notion of 'motivated procrastination'. In a longitudinal experiment over four weeks, individuals must complete a cumbersome task of unknown length. We find that exogenous variation in scope for motivated reasoning results in optimistic beliefs among workers, which causally increase the deferral of work to the future. The roots for biased beliefs stem from motivated memory, such that procrastination may persist even if uncertainty is eventually resolved.

العلاقة: Series: CESifo Working Paper; No. 11072; gbv-ppn:1886596913; https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296161Test; RePec:ces:ceswps:_11072

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296161Test

المؤلفون: Nghiem, Giang, Dräger, Lena, Dalloul, Ami

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, E52, E31, D84, anchoring of inflation expectations, central bank communication, survey experiment, randomized controlled trial (RCT)

الوصف: This paper explores communication strategies for anchoring households' medium-term inflation expectations in a high inflation environment. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of 4,000 German households at the height of the recent inflation surge in early 2023, with information treatments including a qualitative statement by the ECB president and quantitative information about the ECB's inflation target or projected inflation. Inflation projections are most effective, but combining information about the target with a qualitative statement also significantly improves anchoring. The treatment effects are particularly pronounced among respondents with high financial literacy and high trust in the central bank.

العلاقة: Series: CESifo Working Paper; No. 11042; gbv-ppn:1885380356; https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296131Test; RePec:ces:ceswps:_11042

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296131Test

المؤلفون: Botsis, Alexandros, Görtz, Christoph, Sakellaris, Plutarchos

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, C53, C83, D22, D84, E32, expectations, firm data, forecast errors, survey data

الوصف: We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range of panel datasets, including qualitative surveys on firm-level forecasts or household expectations. As an application, we employ a panel of Greek manufacturing firms and quantify firms' forecast errors of own sales growth. In this context, we conduct a variety of exercises to demonstrate the methodology's validity and accuracy.

العلاقة: Series: CESifo Working Paper; No. 11013; gbv-ppn:188459493X; https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296102Test; RePec:ces:ceswps:_11013

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296102Test

المؤلفون: Awaya, Yu, Iwasaki, Kohei, Watanabe, Makoto

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, D82, D83, D84, E44, E52, G12, G14, bubbles, dealers, higher-order uncertainty, money

الوصف: This paper examines how monetary expansion causes asset bubbles. When there is no monetary expansion, a bubbly asset is not created due to a hold-up problem. Monetary expansion increases buyers' money holdings, and then, dealers are willing to buy a worthless asset from sellers, in hopes of selling it to buyers who may not know that it is worthless—a bubble now occurs.

العلاقة: Series: CESifo Working Paper; No. 10923; gbv-ppn:1880360470; https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296012Test; RePec:ces:ceswps:_10923

الإتاحة: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/296012Test