المؤلفون: Sherratt, Katharine, Gruson, Hugo, Grah, Rok, Johnson, Helen, Niehus, Rene, Prasse, Bastian, Sandmann, Frank, Deuschel, Jannik, Wolffram, Daniel, Abbott, Sam, Ullrich, Alexander, Gibson, Graham, Ray, Evan L., Reich, Nicholas G., Sheldon, Daniel, Wang, Yijin, Wattanachit, Nutcha, Wang, Lijing, Trnka, Jan, Obozinski, Guillaume, Sun, Tao, Thanou, Dorina, Pottier, Loic, Krymova, Ekaterina, Meinke, Jan H., Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria, Leithäuser, Neele, Mohring, Jan, Schneider, Johanna, Wlazło, Jarosław, Fuhrmann, Jan, Lange, Berit, Rodiah, Isti, Baccam, Prasith, Gurung, Heidi, Stage, Steven, Suchoski, Bradley, Budzinski, Jozef, Walraven, Robert, Villanueva, Inmaculada, Tucek, Vit, Smid, Martin, Zajíček, Milan, Pérez Álvarez, Cesar, Reina, Borja, Bosse, Nikos I., Meakin, Sophie R., Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Osthus, Dave, Alaimo Di Loro, Pierfrancesco, Maruotti, Antonello, Eclerová, Veronika, Kraus, Andrea, Kraus, David, Pribylova, Lenka, Dimitris, Bertsimas, Li, Michael Lingzhi, Saksham, Soni, Dehning, Jonas, Mohr, Sebastian, Priesemann, Viola, Redlarski, Grzegorz, Bejar Haro, Benjamin, Ardenghi, Giovanni, Parolini, Nicola, Ziarelli, Giovanni, Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, Stefan, Hotz, Thomas, Singh, David E., Guzman-Merino, Miguel, Aznarte, Jose L., Moriña, David, Alonso, Sergio, Álvarez, Enric, López, Daniel, Prats, Clara, Burgard, Jan Pablo, Rodloff, Arne, Zimmermann, Tom, Kuhlmann, Alexander, Zibert, Janez, Pennoni, Fulvia, Divino, Fabio, Català, Marti, Lovison, Gianfranco, Giudici, Paolo, Tarantino, Barbara, Bartolucci, Francesco, Jona Lasinio, Giovanna, Mingione, Marco, Farcomeni, Alessio, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Montero-Manso, Pablo, Adiga, Aniruddha, Hurt, Benjamin, Lewis, Bryan, Marathe, Madhav, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Bartczuk, Rafal P., Dreger, Filip, Gambin, Anna, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Gruziel-Słomka, Magdalena, Krupa, Bartosz, Moszyński, Antoni, Niedzielewski, Karol, Nowosielski, Jedrzej, Radwan, Maciej, Rakowski, Franciszek, Semeniuk, Marcin, Szczurek, Ewa, Zieliński, Jakub, Kisielewski, Jan, Pabjan, Barbara, Kirsten, Holger, Kheifetz, Yuri, Scholz, Markus, Biecek, Przemysław, Bodych, Marcin, Filinski, Maciej, Idzikowski, Radoslaw, Krueger, Tyll, Ozanski, Tomasz, Bracher, Johannes, Funk, Sebastian

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:610

الوصف: Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for ...

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: http://dx.doi.org/10.25673/103473Test; https://opendata.uni-halle.de//handle/1981185920/105425Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.25673/103473Test
https://opendata.uni-halle.de//handle/1981185920/105425Test

المؤلفون: Krueger, Tyll, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Bodych, Marcin, Gambin, Anna, Giordano, Giulia, Cuschieri, Sarah, Czypionka, Thomas, Perc, Matjaz, Petelos, Elena, Rosińska, Magdalena, Szczurek, Ewa

المساهمون: Krueger, Tyll, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Bodych, Marcin, Gambin, Anna, Giordano, Giulia, Cuschieri, Sarah, Czypionka, Thoma, Perc, Matjaz, Petelos, Elena, Rosińska, Magdalena, Szczurek, Ewa

مصطلحات موضوعية: Epidemiology, Public health

الوصف: The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/35603303; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:001088238500001; volume:2; issue:1; firstpage:1; lastpage:23; numberofpages:23; journal:COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101016233; https://hdl.handle.net/11572/352342Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00084-wTest
https://hdl.handle.net/11572/352342Test

المؤلفون: Bracher, Johannes, Wolffram, Daniel, Deuschel, Jannik, Görgen, Konstantin, Ketterer, Jakob L., Ullrich, Alexander, Abbott, Sam, Barbarossa, Maria V., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Bodych, Marcin, Bosse, Nikos I., Burgard, Jan Pablo, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Fiedler, Jochen, Fuhrmann, Jan, Funk, Sebastian, Gambin, Anna, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Heyder, Stefan, Hotz, Thomas, Kheifetz, Yuri, Kirsten, Holger, Krueger, Tyll, Krymova, Ekaterina, Leithäuser, Neele, Li, Michael L., Meinke, Jan H., Miasojedow, Błażej, Michaud, Isaac J., Mohring, Jan, Nouvellet, Pierre, Nowosielski, Jedrzej M., Ozanski, Tomasz, Radwan, Maciej, Rakowski, Franciszek, Scholz, Markus, Soni, Saksham, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Gneiting, Tilmann, Schienle, Melanie

المصدر: Communications Medicine, 2 (1), Art.-Nr.: 136 ; ISSN: 2730-664X

مصطلحات موضوعية: ddc:330, Economics, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/330

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/issn/2730-664X; https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152263Test; https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152263/149586356Test; https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000152263Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000152263Test
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8Test
https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152263Test
https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000152263/149586356Test

المؤلفون: Adamik, Barbara, Bawiec, Marek, Bezborodov, Viktor, Biecek, Przemyslaw, Bock, Wolfgang, Bodych, Marcin, Burgard, Jan Pablo, Krueger, Tyll, Migalska, Agata, Mocos, I. R. G., Ozanski, Thomasz, Pabjan, Barbara, Rosinska, Magdalena, Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata, Sobczyk, Piotr, Szczurek, Ewa

مصطلحات موضوعية: Health and Caring Sciences, Hälsovetenskap

الوصف: Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.Methods: We analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.Results: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.Conclusions: The proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.

وصف الملف: electronic

الوصول الحر: https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-124534Test
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.29.20222513Test
https://lnu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1802881/FULLTEXT01.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Krueger, Tyll, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Bodych, Marcin, Gambin, Anna, Giordano, Giulia, Cuschieri, Sarah, Czypionka, Thomas, Perc, Matjaz, Petelos, Elena, Rosińska, Magdalena, Szczurek, Ewa

الوصف: Many countries hit by the COVID-19 epidemic consider the introduction of vaccination passes. So far, no thorough impact assessment of vaccination passes and of lower restrictions for their holders has been conducted. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that accounts for susceptible, infected, and recovered subpopulations, also within the group of vaccinated pass holders. The model accounts for imperfect vaccination effectiveness, revaccinations and waning immunity. Different restrictions for pass holders and the rest of the population result in different scenarios of the epidemic evolution, some of which yield unfavourable COVID-19 dynamics and new waves. We identify critical variables that should be considered by policymakers and show how unfavourable outcomes can be avoided using adaptive policies. In particular, while pass holders could initially be allowed large freedoms, the gradual loss of immunity will require either increased restrictions for pass holders, or accelerated revaccination. In the long-term, common restrictions for both the pass holders and the rest of the population will have to be kept to avoid epidemic resurgence. Such minimum required restrictions depend on vaccination effectiveness, revaccination rate, waning rate and fraction of never-vaccinated population, and, for realistic combinations of these parameters, range between 29% and 69% reduction of contacts.

وصف الملف: text

العلاقة: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/5845/1/krueger-et-al-2021-covid-19-resurgence-vaccination-passes-preprint.pdfTest; Krueger, Tyll; Gogolewski, Krzysztof; Bodych, Marcin; Gambin, Anna; Giordano, Giulia; Cuschieri, Sarah; Czypionka, Thomasorcid:0000-0002-3381-1075; Perc, Matjaz; Petelos, Elena; Rosińska, Magdalena, et al. (2021) Risk of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence with the introduction of vaccination passes. medRxiv. The Preprint Server for Health Sciences.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.07.21256847Test
https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/5845Test/
https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/5845/1/krueger-et-al-2021-covid-19-resurgence-vaccination-passes-preprint.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Bracher, Johannes, Wolffram, Daniel, Deuschel, Jannik, Görgen, Konstantin, Ketterer, Jakob L., Ullrich, Alexander, Abbott, Sam, Barbarossa, Maria Vittoria, Bertsimas, Dimitris, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Bodych, Marcin, Bosse, Nikos I., Burgard, Jan Pablo, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Fuhrmann, Jan, Funk, Sebastian, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Gu, Quanquan, Heyder, Stefan, Hotz, Thomas, Kheifetz, Yuri, Kirsten, Holger, Krueger, Tyll, Krymova, Ekaterina, Li, Michael Lingzhi, Meinke, Jan H., Michaud, Isaac J., Niedzielewski, Karol, Ożański, Tomasz, Rakowski, Franciszek, Scholz, Markus, Soni, Saksham, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Zieliński, Jakub, Zou, Difan, Gneiting, Tilmann, Schienle, Melanie

مصطلحات موضوعية: article, ScholarlyArticle, ddc:500

الوصف: Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

وصف الملف: 16 Seiten

العلاقة: Nature Communications -- 2041-1723 -- http://uri.gbv.de/document/gvk:ppn:626457688Test -- 2553671-0 -- http://www.nature.com/ncommsTest/ -- http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2553671Test -- http://d-nb.info/1002399459Test; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0Test; https://www.db-thueringen.de/receive/dbt_mods_00051901Test; https://www.db-thueringen.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/dbt_derivate_00056071/2041-1723_12_2021_5173.pdfTest; http://uri.gbv.de/document/gvk:ppn:1772205567Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0Test
https://www.db-thueringen.de/receive/dbt_mods_00051901Test
https://www.db-thueringen.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/dbt_derivate_00056071/2041-1723_12_2021_5173.pdfTest
http://uri.gbv.de/document/gvk:ppn:1772205567Test

المؤلفون: Krueger, Tyll, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Bodych, Marcin, Gambin, Anna, Giordano, Giulia, Cuschieri, Sarah, Czypionka, Thomas, Perc, Matjaž, Petelos, Elena, Rosińska, Magdalena, Szczurek, Ewa

الوصف: An interdisciplinary collaboration to provide model-based evidence to inform policy decisions on vaccination passes and on how they shape pandemic dynamics. Do they allow us to safely navigate epidemic waves? Or can they prove treacherous, compromising all sacrifices and efforts previously made?

العلاقة: Krueger, Tyll; Gogolewski, Krzysztof; Bodych, Marcin; Gambin, Anna; Giordano, Giulia; Cuschieri, Sarah; Czypionka, Thomasorcid:0000-0002-3381-1075; Perc, Matjaž; Petelos, Elena; Rosińska, Magdalena, et al. (2022) Vaccination passes: Chariot to freedom or a Trojan horse? In: Nature Portfolio Health Community, 3 March 2022 [Blog Post]

الإتاحة: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/6100Test/
https://healthcommunity.nature.com/posts/vaccination-passes-chariot-to-freedom-or-a-trojan-horseTest

المؤلفون: Adamik, Barbara, Bawiec, Marek, Bezborodov, Viktor, Biecek, Przemyslaw, Bock, Wolfgang, Bodych, Marcin, Burgard, Jan Pablo, Krueger, Tyll, Migalska, Agata, MOCOS, International Research Group, Ożański, Tomasz, Pabjan, Barbara, Rosińska, Magdalena, Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata, Sobczyk, Piotr, Szczurek, Ewa

المصدر: SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3696786Test

المؤلفون: Adamik, Barbara, Bawiec, Marek, Bezborodov, Viktor, Przemyslaw Biecek, Bock, Wolfgang, Bodych, Marcin, Burgard, Jan Pablo, Tyll Krüger, Migalska, Agata, Ożański, Tomasz, Pabjan, Barbara, Rosinska, Magdalena, Malgorzata Sadkowska-Todys, Sobczyk, Piotr, Szczurek, Ewa

الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::65957bf273a5ece729d7940c2d84b986Test

المؤلفون: Bracher, Johannes, Wolffram, Daniel, Deuschel, Jannik, Görgen, Konstantin, Ketterer, Jakob L., Ullrich, Alexander, Abbott, Sam, Barbarossa, Maria V., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Bodych, Marcin, Bosse, Nikos I., Burgard, Jan Pablo, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Fiedler, Jochen, Fuhrmann, Jan, Funk, Sebastian, Gambin, Anna, Gogolewski, Krzysztof, Heyder, Stefan, Hotz, Thomas, Kheifetz, Yuri, Kirsten, Holger, Krueger, Tyll, Krymova, Ekaterina, Leithäuser, Neele, Li, Michael L., Meinke, Jan H., Miasojedow, Błażej, Michaud, Isaac J., Mohring, Jan, Nouvellet, Pierre, Nowosielski, Jedrzej M., Ozanski, Tomasz, Radwan, Maciej, Rakowski, Franciszek, Scholz, Markus, Soni, Saksham, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Gneiting, Tilmann, Schienle, Melanie

الوصف: During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021. We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is part of a pre-registered evaluation study. We find that many, though not all, models outperform a simple baseline model up to four weeks ahead for the considered targets. Ensemble methods show very good relative performance. The addressed time period is characterized by rather stable non-pharmaceutical interventions in both countries, making short-term predictions more straightforward than in previous periods. However, major trend changes in reported cases, like the rebound in cases due to the rise of the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant in March 2021, prove challenging to predict. Multi-model approaches can help to improve the performance of epidemiological forecasts. However, while death numbers can be predicted with some success based on current case and hospitalization data, predictability of case numbers remains low beyond quite short time horizons. Additional data sources including sequencing and mobility data, which were not extensively used in the present study, may help to improve performance.

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1974933Test; https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1974933Test; https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8Test
http://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1974933Test
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1974933Test