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1دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Margaux L. Sadoine, Kate Zinszer, Ying Liu, Philippe Gachon, Michel Fournier, Guillaume Dueymes, Grant Dorsey, Ana Llerena, Jane Frances Namuganga, Bouchra Nasri, Audrey Smargiassi
المصدر: Scientific Reports, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2024)
الوصف: Abstract Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010–2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The results showed upward trends in the annual malaria cases by 25% to 30% by 2050s in the absence of intervention but there was great variability in the predictions (historical vs RCP 4.5 medians [Min–Max]: 16,785 [9,902–74,382] vs 21,289 [11,796–70,606]). The combination of IRS and LLIN, IRS alone, and LLIN alone would contribute to reducing the malaria burden by 76%, 63% and 35% respectively. Similar conclusions were drawn from the predictions of the models with and without interactions between environmental factors and interventions, suggesting that the interactions have no added value for the predictions. The results highlight the need for maintaining vector control interventions for malaria prevention and control in the context of climate change given the potential public health and economic implications of increasing malaria in Uganda.
وصف الملف: electronic resource
العلاقة: https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322Test
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2دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Ana Llerena, Philippe Gachon, René Laprise
المصدر: Atmosphere, Vol 14, Iss 7, p 1130 (2023)
مصطلحات موضوعية: Clausius–Clapeyron, precipitation–temperature scaling, precipitation extremes, meteorological hazards, regional climate models, convection-permitting model, Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
الوصف: In the context of global warming, the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship has been widely used as an indicator of the evolution of the precipitation regime, including daily and sub-daily extremes. This study aims to verify the existence of links between precipitation extremes and 2 m air temperature for the Ottawa River Basin (ORB, Canada) over the period 1981–2010, applying an exponential relationship between the 99th percentile of precipitation and temperature characteristics. Three simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5), at three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.11°), one simulation using the recent CRCM version 6 (CRCM6) at “convection-permitting” resolution (2.5 km), and two reanalysis products (ERA5 and ERA5-Land) were used to investigate the CC scaling hypothesis that precipitation increases at the same rate as the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity (i.e., 6.8%/°C). In general, daily precipitation follows a lower rate of change than the CC scaling with median values between 2 and 4%/°C for the ORB and with a level of statistical significance of 5%, while hourly precipitation increases faster with temperature, between 4 and 7%/°C. In the latter case, rates of change greater than the CC scaling were even up to 10.2%/°C for the simulation at 0.11°. A hook shape is observed in summer for CRCM5 simulations, near the 20–25 °C temperature threshold, where the 99th percentile of precipitation decreases with temperature, especially at higher resolution with the CRCM6 data. Beyond the threshold of 20 °C, it appears that the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity is not the only determining factor for generating precipitation extremes. Other factors need to be considered, such as the moisture availability at the time of the precipitation event, and the presence of dynamical mechanisms that increase, for example, upward vertical motion. As mentioned in previous studies, the applicability of the CC scaling should not be generalised in the study of precipitation extremes. The time and spatial scales and season are also dependent factors that must be taken into account. In fact, the evolution of precipitation extremes and temperature relationships should be identified and evaluated with very high spatial resolution simulations, knowing that local temperature and regional physiographic features play a major role in the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes. As precipitation extremes have important effects on the occurrence of floods with potential deleterious damages, further research needs to explore the sensitivity of projections to resolution with various air temperature and humidity thresholds, especially at the sub-daily scale, as these precipitation types seem to increase faster with temperature than with daily-scale values. This will help to develop decision-making and adaptation strategies based on improved physical knowledge or approaches and not on a single assumption based on CC scaling.
وصف الملف: electronic resource
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3دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Margaux L. Sadoine, Kate Zinszer, Ying Li, Philippe Gachon, Michel Fournier, Guillaume Dueymes, Grant Dorsey, Ana Llerena, Jane Frances Namuganga, Bouchra Nasri, Audrey Smargiassi
مصطلحات موضوعية: Malaria, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Medicine, Health Sciences, Global Impact of Arboviral Diseases, Malaria Parasites in Birds, Parasitology, Immunology and Microbiology, Life Sciences, Climate Change Impacts, Psychological intervention, Indoor residual spraying, Climate change, Environmental science, Environmental health, Environmental resource management, Geography, Ecology, FOS Biological sciences, Biology, Plasmodium falciparum, Psychiatry, Immunology, FOS Clinical medicine, Artemisinin
الوصف: Many studies have projected malaria risks with climate change scenarios by modelling one or two environmental variables and without the consideration of malaria control interventions. We aimed to predict the risk of malaria with climate change considering the influence of rainfall, humidity, temperatures, vegetation, and vector control interventions (indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN)). We used negative binomial models based on weekly malaria data from six facility-based surveillance sites in Uganda from 2010-2018, to estimate associations between malaria, environmental variables and interventions, accounting for the non-linearity of environmental variables. Associations were applied to future climate scenarios to predict malaria distribution using an ensemble of Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Predictions including interaction effects between environmental variables and interventions were also explored. The ... : وقد توقعت العديد من الدراسات مخاطر الملاريا مع سيناريوهات تغير المناخ من خلال نمذجة واحد أو اثنين من المتغيرات البيئية ودون النظر في تدخلات مكافحة الملاريا. كنا نهدف إلى التنبؤ بخطر الملاريا مع تغير المناخ مع الأخذ في الاعتبار تأثير هطول الأمطار والرطوبة ودرجات الحرارة والغطاء النباتي وتدخلات مكافحة ناقلات الأمراض (الرش الداخلي المتبقي (IRS) والناموسيات الحشرية طويلة الأمد (LLIN)). استخدمنا نماذج ثنائية الحدود سلبية بناءً على بيانات الملاريا الأسبوعية من ستة مواقع مراقبة قائمة على المرافق في أوغندا من 2010-2018، لتقدير الارتباطات بين الملاريا والمتغيرات البيئية والتدخلات، مع مراعاة عدم خطية المتغيرات البيئية. تم تطبيق الارتباطات على سيناريوهات المناخ المستقبلية للتنبؤ بتوزيع الملاريا باستخدام مجموعة من النماذج المناخية الإقليمية في إطار مسارين تمثيليين للتركيز (RCP4.5 و RCP8.5). كما تم استكشاف التنبؤات بما في ذلك تأثيرات التفاعل بين المتغيرات البيئية والتدخلات. أظهرت النتائج اتجاهات تصاعدية في حالات الملاريا السنوية بنسبة 25 ٪ إلى 30 ٪ بحلول عام 2050 في غياب التدخل، ولكن كان هناك تباين كبير في التنبؤات ...
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4دورية أكاديمية
المصدر: Cuadernos del Centro de Estudios de Diseño y Comunicación; No 159 (2022): Seminario de Estudios Avanzados en Diseño Internacional ; Cuadernos del Centro de Estudios de Diseño y Comunicación; Núm. 159 (2022): Seminario de Estudios Avanzados en Diseño Internacional ; 1853-3523 ; 1668-0227 ; 10.18682/cdc.vi159
مصطلحات موضوعية: biomaterial, building material, timber, architecture, design, cataloging, structure, materiales de construcción, madera, arquitectura, diseño, catalogación, estructura, Biomateria, material de construção, madeira, arquitetura, catalogação, estrutura
الوصف: El objetivo de este artículo es generar aportes conceptuales para analizar y caracterizar el uso de la madera como material bio basado, a partir del enfoque de Laranjeira & Menezes (2021). Las autoras centran sus esfuerzos en mostrar soluciones alternativas al consumo desmedido de materiales textiles y contribuir a la reducción de emisiones de carbono. Bajo esta perspectiva de sostenibilidad, este trabajo asume su metodología y la relaciona con el campo del diseño arquitectónico y la construcción, a través de la revalorización de la madera como material de construcción, ya que es “el único recurso natural renovable dotado de propiedades estructurales y el único elemento vivo que se emplea en construcción” (Kottas, [2016] en (Espinosa et al., 2018, p. V)). Se analiza la madera en base a los resultados obtenidos por Espinosa, et al. (2018) en el Catálogo de madera estructural del Ecuador, y en función del conocimiento de las características y propiedades del material, aprovechar y optimizar su empleo dentro de la arquitectura. ; The objective of this article is to generate conceptual contributions to analyze and characterize the use of wood as a bio-based material, based on the approach of Laranjeira & Menezes (2021). The authors focus their efforts on showing alternative solutions to the excessive consumption of textile materials and contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions. Under this perspective of sustainability, this work assumes the methodology and relates it to the field of architectural design and construction, through the revaluation of wood as a construction material, since it is “the only renewable natural resource endowed with structural properties and the only living element used in construction ”(Kottas, [2016] in (Espinosa et al., 2018, p. V)). Wood is analyzed based on the results obtained by Espinosa, et al. (2018) in the Catalog of structural woods of Ecuador, and depending on the knowledge of the characteristics and properties of the material, take advantage of and optimize its ...
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://dspace.palermo.edu/ojs/index.php/cdc/article/view/6829/10780Test; https://dspace.palermo.edu/ojs/index.php/cdc/article/view/6829/10781Test; https://dspace.palermo.edu/ojs/index.php/cdc/article/view/6829Test
الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.18682/cdc.vi159.6829Test
https://doi.org/10.18682/cdc.vi159Test
https://dspace.palermo.edu/ojs/index.php/cdc/article/view/6829Test -
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المؤلفون: Laprise, Ana Llerena, Philippe Gachon, René
المصدر: Atmosphere; Volume 14; Issue 7; Pages: 1130
مصطلحات موضوعية: Clausius–Clapeyron, precipitation–temperature scaling, precipitation extremes, meteorological hazards, regional climate models, convection-permitting model, flood risks
الوصف: In the context of global warming, the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship has been widely used as an indicator of the evolution of the precipitation regime, including daily and sub-daily extremes. This study aims to verify the existence of links between precipitation extremes and 2 m air temperature for the Ottawa River Basin (ORB, Canada) over the period 1981–2010, applying an exponential relationship between the 99th percentile of precipitation and temperature characteristics. Three simulations of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5), at three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.22°, and 0.11°), one simulation using the recent CRCM version 6 (CRCM6) at “convection-permitting” resolution (2.5 km), and two reanalysis products (ERA5 and ERA5-Land) were used to investigate the CC scaling hypothesis that precipitation increases at the same rate as the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity (i.e., 6.8%/°C). In general, daily precipitation follows a lower rate of change than the CC scaling with median values between 2 and 4%/°C for the ORB and with a level of statistical significance of 5%, while hourly precipitation increases faster with temperature, between 4 and 7%/°C. In the latter case, rates of change greater than the CC scaling were even up to 10.2%/°C for the simulation at 0.11°. A hook shape is observed in summer for CRCM5 simulations, near the 20–25 °C temperature threshold, where the 99th percentile of precipitation decreases with temperature, especially at higher resolution with the CRCM6 data. Beyond the threshold of 20 °C, it appears that the atmospheric moisture-holding capacity is not the only determining factor for generating precipitation extremes. Other factors need to be considered, such as the moisture availability at the time of the precipitation event, and the presence of dynamical mechanisms that increase, for example, upward vertical motion. As mentioned in previous studies, the applicability of the CC scaling should not be generalised in the study of precipitation extremes. The time and spatial scales and season are also dependent factors that must be taken into account. In fact, the evolution of precipitation extremes and temperature relationships should be identified and evaluated with very high spatial resolution simulations, knowing that local temperature and regional physiographic features play a major role in the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes. As precipitation extremes have important effects on the occurrence of floods with potential deleterious damages, further research needs to explore the sensitivity of projections to resolution with various air temperature and humidity thresholds, especially at the sub-daily scale, as these precipitation types seem to increase faster with temperature than with daily-scale values. This will help to develop decision-making and adaptation strategies based on improved physical knowledge or approaches and not on a single assumption based on CC scaling.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=multidiscipl::a08df507e0d43921daf5b88b3f3da406Test
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المصدر: Cuadernos del Centro de Estudios de Diseño y Comunicación.
مصطلحات موضوعية: Complementary and alternative medicine, Pharmaceutical Science, Pharmacology (medical)
الوصف: El objetivo de este artículo es generar aportes conceptuales para analizar y caracterizar el uso de la madera como material bio basado, a partir del enfoque de Laranjeira & Menezes (2021). Las autoras centran sus esfuerzos en mostrar soluciones alternativas al consumo desmedido de materiales textiles y contribuir a la reducción de emisiones de carbono. Bajo esta perspectiva de sostenibilidad, este trabajo asume su metodología y la relaciona con el campo del diseño arquitectónico y la construcción, a través de la revalorización de la madera como material de construcción, ya que es “el único recurso natural renovable dotado de propiedades estructurales y el único elemento vivo que se emplea en construcción” (Kottas, [2016] en (Espinosa et al., 2018, p. V)). Se analiza la madera en base a los resultados obtenidos por Espinosa, et al. (2018) en el Catálogo de madera estructural del Ecuador, y en función del conocimiento de las características y propiedades del material, aprovechar y optimizar su empleo dentro de la arquitectura.
الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::ba00fb2de5ee9b0f65f2d7ed27ee1e5dTest
https://doi.org/10.18682/cdc.vi159.6829Test
النص الكامل