Earthquake rupture forecasts for the mps19 seismic hazard model of Italy
| العنوان: | Earthquake rupture forecasts for the mps19 seismic hazard model of Italy |
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| المؤلفون: | Pierfrancesco Burrato, Raffaele Azzaro, Andrea Rovida, Francesco Visini, Davide Scafidi, Gianluca Valensise, Elisa Zuccolo, Federico Sani, Maura Murru, Paola Vannoli, Maria Eliana Poli, Nicola D'Agostino, Giuseppe Falcone, Roberto Basili, Carmelo Monaco, Michela Dal Cin, Andrea Marchesini, Giacomo Corti, Horst Langer, Dario Slejko, Tiziana Tuvè, Ornella Cocina, Bruno Pace, Alessandro Rebez, Matteo Taroni, Jacopo Selva, Vanja Kastelic, Giuseppina Tusa, Peter Bird, Giovanni Barreca, Renata Rotondi, Carlo Meletti, Rodolfo Console, Aybige Akinci, Luca Martelli, Simone Barani, Elisa Varini, Silvia Pondrelli, Alberto Tamaro, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Carlo G. Lai, Graziella Barberi, Mara Monica Tiberti, Martina Busetti, Michele M. C. Carafa, Marco Bonini, Marco Santulin, Robin Gee, Umberto Fracassi, Daniele Spallarossa, Adriano Zanferrari, Laura Peruzza, Gabriele Tarabusi, V. D'Amico, Warner Marzocchi, Salvatore D'Amico |
| المساهمون: | Visini, F., Pace, B., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., Akinci, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Cocina, O., Console, R., Corti, G., D'Agostino, N., D'Amico, S., D'Amico, V., Cin, M. D., Falcone, G., Fracassi, U., Gee, R., Kastelic, V., Lai, C. G., Langer, H., Maesano, F. E., Marchesini, A., Martelli, L., Monaco, C., Murru, M., Peruzza, L., Poli, M. E., Pondrelli, S., Rebez, A., Rotondi, R., Rovida, A., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Tusa, G., Tuve, T., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., Zuccolo, E. |
| المصدر: | Annals of geophysics (Online) 64 (2021): 1–31. doi:10.4401/ag-8608 info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:F. Visini, B. Pace, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, A. Akinci, R. Azzaro, S. Barani, G. Barberi, G. Barreca, R. Basili, P. Bird, M. Bonini, P. Burrato, M. Busetti, M.M. Cosimo Carafa, O. Cocina, R. Console, G. Corti, N. D'Agostino, S. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, M. Dal Cin, G. Falcone, U. Fracassi, R. Gee, V. Kastelic, C.G. Lai, H. Langer, F.E. Maesano, A. Marchesini, L. Martelli, C. Monaco, M. Murru, L. Peruzza, M.E. Poli, S. Pondrelli, A. Rebez, R. Rotondi, A. Rovida, F. Sani, M. Santulin, D. Scafidi, J. Selva, D. Slejko, D. Spallarossa, A. Tamaro, G. Tarabusi, M. Taroni, M.M. Tiberti, G. Tusa, T. Tuvè, G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, E. Varini, A. Zanferrari, and E. Zuccolo/titolo:Earthquake rupture forecasts for the MPS19 seismic hazard model of Italy/doi:10.4401%2Fag-8608/rivista:Annals of geophysics (Online)/anno:2021/pagina_da:1/pagina_a:31/intervallo_pagine:1–31/volume:64 |
| سنة النشر: | 2021 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Seismotectonic zone, Smoothed seismicity, Large range, Active fault, Single zone, Induced seismicity, Active faults, Earthquake rupture forecast, Geodesy, PSHA, Seismotectonic zones, Geophysics, Seismic hazard, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Earthquake rupture, Geology, Seismology |
| الوصف: | In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model. |
| اللغة: | English |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::7a81c0c51cf267803b911fe637b35946Test http://hdl.handle.net/11390/1208838Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....7a81c0c51cf267803b911fe637b35946 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| الوصف غير متاح. |