Modelling and Forecasting of Meat Exports from India

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Modelling and Forecasting of Meat Exports from India
المؤلفون: Paul, Ranjit Kumar, Panwar, Sanjeev, Sarkar, Susheel Kumar, Kumar, Anil, Singh, K.N., Farooqi, Samir, Choudhary, Vipin Kumar
سنة النشر: 2013
مصطلحات موضوعية: Agricultural and Food Policy, seasonality, stationarity, meat export, SARIMA model, Forecasting
الوصف: In the present study, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methodology has been applied for modelling and forecasting of monthly export of meat and meat products from India. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test has been used for testing the stationarity of the series. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation (PACF) functions have been estimated, which have led to the identification and construction of SARIMA models, suitable in explaining the time series and forecasting the future export. The evaluation of forecasting of export of meat and meat preparations has been carried out with root mean squares prediction error (RMSPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE) and relative mean absolute prediction error (RMAPE). The residuals of the fitted models were used for the diagnostic checking. The best identified model for the data under consideration was used for out-of-sample forecasting along with the upper and lower 95 per cent confidence interval up to the year 2013.
اللغة: English
DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.162149
الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::5dd88e02a210f1f48017ca029c37bf02Test
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi...........5dd88e02a210f1f48017ca029c37bf02
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE