المؤلفون: GOH, LIM THYE^1,2 ltgoh@um.edu.my, LAW, SIONG HOOK³ lawsh@upm.edu.my, TRINUGROHO, IRWAN⁴ irwan.trinugroho@gmail.com

المصدر: Singapore Economic Review. Jun2022, Vol. 67 Issue 4, p1333-1353. 21p. 1 Diagram, 8 Charts, 3 Graphs.

مصطلحات موضوعية: *PRICE fluctuations, *PRICE inflation, *PETROLEUM sales & prices, *WHOLESALE price indexes, *PRICE levels, *PRICE increases, INFLATION targeting

مصطلحات جغرافية: INDONESIA

مستخلص: Changes in the oil price directly affect production costs, and subsequently, the general price level of products. With Indonesia observing an inflation targeting policy, this study applies the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations in Indonesia. The relationship is important for the central bank to gauge the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy in immunizing the country from oil price fluctuations. Our findings have revealed that there was an asymmetric behavior between oil price and the inflation rate (producer price index), thus questioning the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy. More specifically, in the long run, an increase in the oil price will tend to lead to an increase in the rate of inflation with a greater deviation, while an oil price reduction will lead to a decrease in the inflation rate with a lower deviation. This suggests that the benefits of an oil price reduction are not passed down to the consumer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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المؤلفون: Ahn, Sangheon, Jo, Soojin

المصدر: Global Economic Review; Mar2024, Vol. 53 Issue 1, p52-71, 20p

مصطلحات موضوعية: PRICES, PETROLEUM sales & prices, PETROLEUM, PRICE increases, COVID-19 pandemic, PRICE fluctuations

مستخلص: This paper investigates how structural oil market shocks transmit through real oil price changes to the U.S. core prices. Separating out the sources of oil price increases reveals that supply shocks lead to significant and persistent increases in core prices while oil inventory demand shocks pull them down. Other demand-driven shocks do not cause any significant core price fluctuations. Examining different sample periods, we find empirical evidence supporting the strengthening of the oil price pass-through to some degree since mid-1980; however, not much change in the pass-through has been observed since the outbreak of Covid-19. Our findings highlight that understanding the sources of oil price changes is crucial for gauging their impacts on core prices and furthermore, for the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of Global Economic Review is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Park, Joshua K., Xiangcai Meng

المصدر: Applied Economics; 2024, Vol. 56 Issue 5, p501-519, 19p

مصطلحات موضوعية: BUSINESS cycles, ECONOMIC change, PETROLEUM sales & prices, UNEMPLOYMENT, PRICE inflation, PRICE fluctuations, PRICE increases, PHILLIPS curve

مصطلحات جغرافية: SOUTH Korea

مستخلص: The impact of oil price on the aggregate economy is an interesting topic which has been examined mainly in the time dimension, but relatively little exploration has been done to reveal how oil price influences inflation, industrial production, and unemployment across frequencies and over time. Employing a continuous wavelet approach, this study contributes to the literature by investigating the effects of oil price on aggregate economic activities in the time-frequency space with a monthly dataset from South Korea. The empirical results demonstrate that: First, the effect of oil price on inflation becomes stronger as moving from high frequencies between 2000 and 2005 to low frequencies between 2008 and 2018. Second, an increase in oil price is associated with a decrease in industrial production, and oil price movements could largely mirror industrial production fluctuations at the 64-month scale between 2011 and 2013 and at the 64-96-month scale between 2014 and 2021. Third, the impact of oil price on unemployment becomes weaker when moving from the 12-24-month scale between 2009 and 2012 to the 24-48-month scale between 2008 and 2016. Our results indicate that policymakers should consider these heterogeneous effects of oil price on the aggregate economy while developing stabilization policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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المؤلفون: Belanès, Amel, Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, Triki, Mohamed Bilel

المصدر: Journal of Risk Finance (Emerald Group Publishing Limited); 2024, Vol. 25 Issue 1, p115-129, 15p

مصطلحات موضوعية: STOCK price indexes, RENEWABLE natural resources, STOCKS (Finance), U.S. dollar, INVESTORS, PRICE fluctuations, FOREIGN exchange rates

مصطلحات جغرافية: SAUDI Arabia

مستخلص: Purpose: The paper investigates the dynamic relationship between oil prices, the USA dollar exchange rate and the Saudi stock market index. Design/methodology/approach: The authors perform a novel dynamic simulated the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) on weekly data from 2010 to 2021. Findings: The authors' work reveals three main results: First, a cointegration relationship exists between oil prices and the Saudi stock market index. Second, the Saudi stock market is strongly affected by fluctuations in oil prices in both the short and long run. Third, the exchange rate of the USA dollar has a slight influence on the movements of the Saudi stock market. The simulations show that the Saudi stock market index has a long-run upward trend after an oil price shock, while the dollar index rises moderately after a similar shock. Moreover, the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a significant decline in the Saudi stock market index, particularly the substantial drop in oil prices. Practical implications: These findings encourage domestic and foreign investors to benefit from an upward trend in oil prices, especially after the opening of the Saudi market to foreign investment. On the other hand, it raises questions about the Saudi economy's dependence on oil as the sole vehicle for output growth. It highlights the urgent need for diversification and productivity growth in the non-oil sector and other renewable natural resources to increase Saudi competitiveness. Originality/value: The novelty of the research lies in the following. First, the authors apply one of the latest developments in time-series modeling techniques. This dynamic ARDL simulation model provides a worthwhile alternative way to explore dynamic correlations in the short and long run and assess the choc effects. Secondly, the study would enable us to track the impact of the COVID-19 health crisis on the Saudi stock market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of Journal of Risk Finance (Emerald Group Publishing Limited) is the property of Emerald Publishing Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Ojumu, Oluwagbemiga, Osho, Gbolahan Solomon

المصدر: Journal of Applied Business & Economics; 2023, Vol. 25 Issue 7, p18-25, 8p

مصطلحات موضوعية: PETROLEUM sales & prices, GAS prices, PETROLEUM industry, OIL consumption, PRICE fluctuations, BALANCE of payments, MONEY supply, CONSUMPTION (Economics)

مصطلحات جغرافية: NIGERIA

مستخلص: Once a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, crude oil production now experiences a paradigm shift, abundant for domestic consumption and export, signaling a lasting global oil price transformation. Despite a surge in U.S. hydrocarbon production and weakening oil prices, imports from Nigeria dramatically dropped from 1.5 million barrels per day in 2006 to 0.2 million in 2013, ceasing entirely by early 2014. Consequently, Nigeria faced a sudden depletion of trade surpluses and reduced foreign reserves. This study delves into the immediate and long-term challenges confronting Nigeria, particularly examining the impact of recent oil and gas price fluctuations on key macroeconomic factors. Findings highlight the balance of payments' high elasticity to oil price shifts and low elasticity to money supply changes with a coefficient of determination of 78.69%. Additionally, the exchange rate shows low elasticity to oil price changes and moderate elasticity to money supply variations with a coefficient of determination of 82.80%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of Journal of Applied Business & Economics is the property of North American Business Press Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Sohag, Kazi¹ (AUTHOR) sohagkaziewu@gmail.com, Kalina, Irina¹ (AUTHOR) irina.kalina@urfu.ru, Samargandi, Nahla² (AUTHOR) nsamrgandi@kau.edu.sa

المصدر: Energy. Jun2024, Vol. 296, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.

مصطلحات موضوعية: *PRICE fluctuations, *PETROLEUM sales & prices, *FISCAL policy, *OIL filters, *PETROLEUM, *HEAT shock proteins

الشركة/الكيان: ORGANIZATION of Petroleum Exporting Countries

مستخلص: The fiscal policies of OPEC + member countries are intricately linked to the fluctuations in oil prices. Through rigorous fiscal consolidation efforts, certain OPEC + nations have fortified their ability to absorb these price shocks. In our study, we introduced a range of cyclical oil price shocks by employing both HP and Hamilton filters. To ensure the robustness of our analysis, we adopted a Panel VAR approach under system GMM framework, coupled with Helmert Transformation and common correlation variables. These methodological choices effectively addressed issues related to endogeneity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional bias in our empirical estimation. Our research uncovered that cyclical oil price shocks have an immediate, positive impact on fiscal stance, albeit with diminishing effects in the medium to long term. Conversely, gradual oil price trends displayed insignificant influence on fiscal policy. Given the considerable economic disparities among OPEC + countries, we applied a dynamic common correlation analysis within a mean group framework to disentangle the effects of cyclical shocks from fiscal responses. Our findings highlight that, among OPEC + members, Gabon, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kazakhstan are particularly well-positioned to leverage cyclical oil price shocks. These empirical results hold crucial implications for policy formulation within the OPEC + alliance. • OPEC + fiscal policies linked to oil price fluctuations. • This study employed HP and Hamilton filters for oil price cyclical shocks. • Adopted Panel VAR with system GMM and Helmert Transformation. • Cyclical shocks have a short-term positive fiscal impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

المؤلفون: Wu, Jie¹ (AUTHOR) jacky012@ustc.edu.cn, Zhao, Ruizeng¹ (AUTHOR) zhaorz@mail.ustc.edu.cn, Sun, Jiasen^1,2 (AUTHOR) jiasen@suda.edu.cn, Zhou, Xuewei³ (AUTHOR) xueweizhou@hunnu.edu.cn

المصدر: Resources Policy. Aug2023:Part B, Vol. 85, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.

مصطلحات موضوعية: *PRICE fluctuations, *PETROLEUM sales & prices, *ENERGY industries, *SUPPLY & demand, GEOPOLITICS

مستخلص: Coping with uncertain risks has emerged as a crucial topic of discussion in the global energy market. This study uses single-factor and two-factor GARCH-MIDAS-GPR models to examine the influence of GPR on oil prices (OP) and its internal mechanisms. In addition, this study examines the influence of GPR on fluctuations in OP in typical oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Additionally, it analyzes the heterogeneity across various time domains. The study yielded the following conclusions. First, GPR positively influences OP fluctuations and oil demand while exerting a significant negative impact on oil supply. Second, the GPR of oil-exporting countries has a noticeable influence on OP fluctuations than that of oil-importing ones. Third, GPR exhibits varying impacts on oil demand and supply across different time domains. Fourth, heterogeneity exists in the impact of geopolitical threats and geopolitical actions on OP fluctuation, oil demand, and supply. Finally, this study proposes specific recommendations to address the issues identified. • This study constructed a GARCH-MIDAS-GPR model. • The internal mechanism of GPR affecting OP fluctuations is analyzed. • GPR primarily triggers OP upward fluctuations by influencing oil demand. • The GPR of oil-importing and -exporting countries have different impacts on OP. • Geopolitical threats play a leading role in affecting OP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of Resources Policy is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: Fueki, Takuji¹ (AUTHOR), Nakajima, Jouchi² (AUTHOR) jouchi.nakajima@boj.or.jp, Ohyama, Shinsuke² (AUTHOR), Tamanyu, Yoichiro² (AUTHOR)

المصدر: International Finance. Apr2021, Vol. 24 Issue 1, p53-76. 24p.

مصطلحات موضوعية: Petroleum, Petroleum sales & prices, Aggregate demand, Autoregressive models, Supply & demand, Price fluctuations

مستخلص: This paper proposes a simple but comprehensive structural vector autoregressive model to examine the underlying factors of oil price dynamics. The distinguishing feature is to explicitly assess the role of expectations about future aggregate demand and oil supply in addition to the traditional realized aggregate demand and supply factors. Our empirical analysis shows that identified future demand and supply shocks are as important as the traditional realized demand and supply shocks in explaining historical oil price fluctuations. The empirical result indicates that the influence of oil price changes on global output varies according to the nature of each shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

المؤلفون: Chin, Lee, Saydaliev, Hayot Berk, Kadyrov, Shirali

المصدر: Journal of East-West Business; Apr-Jun2023, Vol. 29 Issue 2, p114-137, 24p

مصطلحات موضوعية: RESOURCE curse, PETROLEUM sales & prices, NONPERFORMING loans, PRICE fluctuations, PRICE increases, BANK liquidity

مصطلحات جغرافية: KAZAKHSTAN

مستخلص: This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of oil price fluctuations on non-performing loans (NPLs) between 2009-Q1 and 2020-Q1 for 28 banks in Kazakhstan. Dynamic panel threshold analysis revealed an initial increase of oil prices, improving creditworthiness, thereby reducing NPLs; however, after cross a certain threshold, the relationship was shown to become the opposite. This finding is in line with the Ricardian curse and resource windfall. The results suggest that optimal borrowings and lending should be actively monitored to mitigate potential liquidity problems of banks and consequently NPLs. The practical implications and policy recommendation of which are important to policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Copyright of Journal of East-West Business is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

المؤلفون: DING CHEN^1,2, GUMMI, UMAR MUHAMMAD^1,3 muhammadgummiu@gmail.com, SHAN-BING LU⁴, MU'AZU, ASIYA³

المصدر: Agricultural Economics / Zemědělská Ekonomika. 2020, Vol. 66 Issue 10, p458-468. 11p.

مصطلحات موضوعية: *FOOD prices, *PRICE fluctuations, *PETROLEUM sales & prices, *LOW-income countries, *ECONOMIC structure

مستخلص: Oil exporting economies were the most hit by the recent oil price shock that spills on the food market in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment. This paper examines and compares sub-samples [before crisis (2000 Q1-2013 Q1) and during crisis (2013 Q2-2019 Q4)] as to the impact of oil price on food prices in high- and low- -income oil-exporting countries. We found an inverse relationship between oil and food prices in the long run based on full samples and sub-samples in high-income countries. The story is different during the crisis period: in low-income countries and all the countries combined, oil and food prices co-move in the long run as measured by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our findings suggest that economic structure and uncertain events (crises) dictate the behaviour and relationship between food and oil markets. Food and oil prices may drift away in the short-run, but market forces turn them toward equilibrium in the long-run. Moreover, low-income countries are indifferent in both periods due to limited capacity to balance the increasing demand for and supply of food items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]