Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
| العنوان: | Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades |
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| المؤلفون: | Raphaëlle Klitting, Liana E. Kafetzopoulou, Wim Thiery, Gytis Dudas, Sophie Gryseels, Anjali Kotamarthi, Bram Vrancken, Karthik Gangavarapu, Mambu Momoh, John Demby Sandi, Augustine Goba, Foday Alhasan, Donald S. Grant, Sylvanus Okogbenin, Ephraim Ogbaini-Emovo, Robert F. Garry, Allison R. Smither, Mark Zeller, Matthias G. Pauthner, Michelle McGraw, Laura D. Hughes, Sophie Duraffour, Stephan Günther, Marc A. Suchard, Philippe Lemey, Kristian G. Andersen, Simon Dellicour |
| المساهمون: | Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering |
| المصدر: | Nature communications Nature Communications Nature communications, vol 13, iss 1 Nature Communications, Berlin : Nature Portfolio, 2022, vol. 13, iss. 1, art. no. 5596, p. [1-15] |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Lassa virus, evolution, zoonotic virus, Multidisciplinary, Life on Land, General Physics and Astronomy, Rodentia, General Chemistry, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Phylogeography, Lassa Fever, Infectious Diseases, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Rare Diseases, Risk Factors, Animals, Humans, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Aetiology, Infection, Biology, Engineering sciences. Technology |
| الوصف: | It is currently unknown how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen responsible for Lassa fever. Here, the authors show that by 2070, new regions in Africa will likely become ecologically suitable for Lassa virus, drastically increasing the population living in conditions favourable for virus circulation. Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf; Electronic |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2041-1723 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::b5771ba10774ebe2cd93413d8c11ef8dTest |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....b5771ba10774ebe2cd93413d8c11ef8d |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 20411723 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3 |