المؤلفون: Di Michele, F, May, J, Pera, D, Kastelic, V, Carafa, M, Smerzini, C, Mazzieri, I, Rubino, B, Antonietti, P F, Quarteroni, A, Aloisio, R, Marcati, P

المساهمون: GNCS INdAM, GSSI, Department of Information Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L'Aquila

المصدر: Geophysical Journal International ; volume 230, issue 1, page 29-49 ; ISSN 0956-540X 1365-246X

مصطلحات موضوعية: Geochemistry and Petrology, Geophysics

الوصف: SUMMARY In this paper, we simulate the earthquake that hit the city of L’Aquila on 2009 April 6 using SPEED (SPectral Elements in Elastodynamics with Discontinuous Galerkin), an open-source code able to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in complex 3-D domains. Our model includes an accurate 3-D reconstruction of the Quaternary deposits, according to the most up-to-date data obtained from the Microzonation studies in Central Italy and a detailed model of the topography incorporated using a newly developed tool. The sensitivity of our results with respect to different kinematic seismic sources is investigated. The results obtained are in good agreement with the recordings at the available seismic stations at epicentral distances within a range of 20 km. Finally, a blind source prediction scenario application shows that a reasonably good agreement between simulations and recordings can be obtained by simulating stochastic rupture realizations with basic input data. These results, although limited to nine simulated scenarios, demonstrate that it is possible to obtain a satisfactory reconstruction of a ground shaking scenario employing a stochastic source constrained on a limited amount of ex-ante information. A similar approach can be used to model future and past earthquakes for which little or no information is typically available, with potential relevant implications for seismic risk assessment.

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac042Test
https://academic.oup.com/gji/article-pdf/230/1/29/43023215/ggac042.pdfTest

المؤلفون: Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., Akinci, A., Anzidei, M., Avallone, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Camassi, R., Carafa, M., Cavaliere, A., Cecere, G., Cheloni, D., Chioccarelli, E., Console, R., Corti, G., D'agostino, N., Cin, M., D'ambrosio, C., D’amico, M., D’amico, S., Devoti, R., Esposito, A., Faenza, L., Falcone, G., Felicetta, C., Fracassi, U., Franco, L., Galvani, A., Gasperini, P., Gee, R., Capera, A., Iervolino, I., Kastelic, V., Lai, C., Locati, M., Lolli, B., Maesano, F., Marchesini, A., Mariucci, M., Martelli, L., Massa, M., Metois, M., Monaco, C., Montone, P., Moschetti, M., Murru, M., Pacor, F., Pagani, M., Pasolini, C., Peresan, A., Peruzza, L., Pietrantonio, G., Poli, M., Pondrelli, S., Puglia, R., Rebez, A., Riguzzi, F., Roselli, P., Rotondi, R., Russo, E., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Selvaggi, G., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Sepe, V., Serpelloni, E., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Stallone, A., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Tiberti, M., Tuvè, T., Valensise, G., Vallone, R., Vannoli, P., Vannucci, G., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., Zuccolo, E., Danciu, L., Schorlemmer, D., Bazzurro, P., Giardini, D., Modena, C., Mulargia, F., Seno, S., Group, T.

المساهمون: Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., D'Amico, V., Lanzano, G., Luzi, L., Martinelli, F., Pace, B., Rovida, A., Taroni, M., Visini, F., Selva, Jacopo, Meletti C., Marzocchi W., D'amico V., Lanzano G., Luzi L., Martinelli F., Pace B., Rovida A., Taroni M., Visini F., Akinci A., Anzidei M., Avallone A., Azzaro R., Barani S., Barberi G., Barreca G., Basili R., Bird P., Bonini M., Burrato P., Busetti M., Camassi R., Carafa M.M.C., Cavaliere A., Cecere G., Cheloni D., Chioccarelli E., Console R., Corti G., D'agostino N., Cin M.D., D'ambrosio C., D'amico M., D'amico S., Devoti R., Esposito A., Faenza L., Falcone G., Felicetta C., Fracassi U., Franco L., Galvani A., Gasperini P., Gee R., Capera A.A.G., Iervolino I., Kastelic V., Lai C.G., Locati M., Lolli B., Maesano F.E., Marchesini A., Mariucci M.T., Martelli L., Massa M., Metois M., Monaco C., Montone P., Moschetti M., Murru M., Pacor F., Pagani M., Pasolini C., Peresan A., Peruzza L., Pietrantonio G., Poli M.E., Pondrelli S., Puglia R., Rebez A., Riguzzi F., Roselli P., Rotondi R., Russo E., Sani F., Santulin M., Selvaggi G., Scafidi D., Selva J., Sepe V., Serpelloni E., Slejko D., Spallarossa D., Stallone A., Tamaro A., Tarabusi G., Tiberti M.M., Tuve T., Valensise G., Vallone R., Vannoli P., Vannucci G., Varini E., Zanferrari A., Zuccolo E., Danciu L., Schorlemmer D., Bazzurro P., Giardini D., Modena C., Mulargia F., Seno S., MPS19 Working Group

المصدر: Annals of geophysics (Online) 64 (2021): SE112. doi:10.4401/ag-8579
info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, V. D'Amico, G. Lanzano, L. Luzi, F. Martinelli, B. Pace, A. Rovida, M. Taroni, F. Visini, and MPS19 Working Group/titolo:The new Italian seismic hazard model (MPS19)/doi:10.4401%2Fag-8579/rivista:Annals of geophysics (Online)/anno:2021/pagina_da:SE112/pagina_a:/intervallo_pagine:SE112/volume:64
Annals of Geophysics

مصطلحات موضوعية: Peak ground acceleration, Epistemic uncertainty, Computer science, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Interpretation (model theory), Seismic hazard, Set (abstract data type), Range (statistics), Earthquake hazard analysis -- Italy, Ensemble modeling, Uncertainty quantification, Probabilistic framework, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Structure (mathematical logic), Probabilistic methods, Earthquake prediction, Geophysics, Ensemble learning (Machine learning), Probabilistic method, Italy, Probabilities -- Mathematical models, Data mining, computer

الوصف: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
peer-reviewed

وصف الملف: application/pdf; ELETTRONICO

الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::fb143bae49dbe4a43f70f40ce9630429Test

المؤلفون: Pierfrancesco Burrato, Raffaele Azzaro, Andrea Rovida, Francesco Visini, Davide Scafidi, Gianluca Valensise, Elisa Zuccolo, Federico Sani, Maura Murru, Paola Vannoli, Maria Eliana Poli, Nicola D'Agostino, Giuseppe Falcone, Roberto Basili, Carmelo Monaco, Michela Dal Cin, Andrea Marchesini, Giacomo Corti, Horst Langer, Dario Slejko, Tiziana Tuvè, Ornella Cocina, Bruno Pace, Alessandro Rebez, Matteo Taroni, Jacopo Selva, Vanja Kastelic, Giuseppina Tusa, Peter Bird, Giovanni Barreca, Renata Rotondi, Carlo Meletti, Rodolfo Console, Aybige Akinci, Luca Martelli, Simone Barani, Elisa Varini, Silvia Pondrelli, Alberto Tamaro, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Carlo G. Lai, Graziella Barberi, Mara Monica Tiberti, Martina Busetti, Michele M. C. Carafa, Marco Bonini, Marco Santulin, Robin Gee, Umberto Fracassi, Daniele Spallarossa, Adriano Zanferrari, Laura Peruzza, Gabriele Tarabusi, V. D'Amico, Warner Marzocchi, Salvatore D'Amico

المساهمون: Visini, F., Pace, B., Meletti, C., Marzocchi, W., Akinci, A., Azzaro, R., Barani, S., Barberi, G., Barreca, G., Basili, R., Bird, P., Bonini, M., Burrato, P., Busetti, M., Carafa, M. M. C., Cocina, O., Console, R., Corti, G., D'Agostino, N., D'Amico, S., D'Amico, V., Cin, M. D., Falcone, G., Fracassi, U., Gee, R., Kastelic, V., Lai, C. G., Langer, H., Maesano, F. E., Marchesini, A., Martelli, L., Monaco, C., Murru, M., Peruzza, L., Poli, M. E., Pondrelli, S., Rebez, A., Rotondi, R., Rovida, A., Sani, F., Santulin, M., Scafidi, D., Selva, J., Slejko, D., Spallarossa, D., Tamaro, A., Tarabusi, G., Taroni, M., Tiberti, M. M., Tusa, G., Tuve, T., Valensise, G., Vannoli, P., Varini, E., Zanferrari, A., Zuccolo, E.

المصدر: Annals of geophysics (Online) 64 (2021): 1–31. doi:10.4401/ag-8608
info:cnr-pdr/source/autori:F. Visini, B. Pace, C. Meletti, W. Marzocchi, A. Akinci, R. Azzaro, S. Barani, G. Barberi, G. Barreca, R. Basili, P. Bird, M. Bonini, P. Burrato, M. Busetti, M.M. Cosimo Carafa, O. Cocina, R. Console, G. Corti, N. D'Agostino, S. D'Amico, V. D'Amico, M. Dal Cin, G. Falcone, U. Fracassi, R. Gee, V. Kastelic, C.G. Lai, H. Langer, F.E. Maesano, A. Marchesini, L. Martelli, C. Monaco, M. Murru, L. Peruzza, M.E. Poli, S. Pondrelli, A. Rebez, R. Rotondi, A. Rovida, F. Sani, M. Santulin, D. Scafidi, J. Selva, D. Slejko, D. Spallarossa, A. Tamaro, G. Tarabusi, M. Taroni, M.M. Tiberti, G. Tusa, T. Tuvè, G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, E. Varini, A. Zanferrari, and E. Zuccolo/titolo:Earthquake rupture forecasts for the MPS19 seismic hazard model of Italy/doi:10.4401%2Fag-8608/rivista:Annals of geophysics (Online)/anno:2021/pagina_da:1/pagina_a:31/intervallo_pagine:1–31/volume:64

مصطلحات موضوعية: Seismotectonic zone, Smoothed seismicity, Large range, Active fault, Single zone, Induced seismicity, Active faults, Earthquake rupture forecast, Geodesy, PSHA, Seismotectonic zones, Geophysics, Seismic hazard, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Earthquake rupture, Geology, Seismology

الوصف: In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.

الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::7a81c0c51cf267803b911fe637b35946Test
http://hdl.handle.net/11390/1208838Test