المؤلفون: D. Zanchettin, S. Bruni, F. Raicich, P. Lionello, F. Adloff, A. Androsov, F. Antonioli, V. Artale, E. Carminati, C. Ferrarin, V. Fofonova, R. J. Nicholls, S. Rubinetti, A. Rubino, G. Sannino, G. Spada, R. Thiéblemont, M. Tsimplis, G. Umgiesser, S. Vignudelli, G. Wöppelmann, S. Zerbini

المصدر: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 2643-2678 (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5

الوصف: The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2643/2021/nhess-21-2643-2021.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/34d02cf235d9478987a33227c935b867Test

المؤلفون: R. Thiéblemont, G. Le Cozannet, J. Rohmer, A. Toimil, M. Álvarez-Cuesta, I. J. Losada

المصدر: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 2257-2276 (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5

الوصف: Global mean sea level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal adaptation. Projections of shoreline retreat are highly uncertain, however, namely due to deeply uncertain mean sea level projections and the absence of consensus on a coastal impact model. An improved understanding and a better quantification of these sources of deep uncertainty are hence required to improve coastal risk management and inform adaptation decisions. In this work we present and apply a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop shoreline change projections of sandy coasts that allows consideration of intrinsic (or aleatory) and knowledge-based (or epistemic) uncertainties exhaustively and transparently. This framework builds upon an empirical shoreline change model to which we ascribe possibility functions to represent deeply uncertain variables. The model is applied to two local sites in Aquitaine (France) and Castellón (Spain). First, we validate the framework against historical shoreline observations and then develop shoreline change projections that account for possible (although unlikely) low-end and high-end mean sea level scenarios. Our high-end projections show for instance that shoreline retreats of up to 200 m in Aquitaine and 130 m in Castellón are plausible by 2100, while low-end projections revealed that 58 and 37 m modest shoreline retreats, respectively, are also plausible. Such extended intervals of possible future shoreline changes reflect an ambiguity in the probabilistic description of shoreline change projections, which could be substantially reduced by better constraining sea level rise (SLR) projections and improving coastal impact models. We found for instance that if mean sea level by 2100 does not exceed 1 m, the ambiguity can be reduced by more than 50 %. This could be achieved through an ambitious climate mitigation policy and improved knowledge on ice sheets.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/2257/2021/nhess-21-2257-2021.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/e968e553a03b4206bc2756012a764111Test

المؤلفون: G. Le Cozannet, D. Idier, M. de Michele, Y. Legendre, M. Moisan, R. Pedreros, R. Thiéblemont, G. Spada, D. Raucoules, Y. de la Torre

المصدر: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21, Pp 703-722 (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5

الوصف: Sea-level rise due to anthropogenic climate change is projected not only to exacerbate extreme events such as cyclones and storms but also to cause more frequent chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions. Chronic flooding occasionally takes place today in the low-lying areas of the Petit Cul-de-sac marin (Guadeloupe, West Indies, French Antilles). This area includes critical industrial and harbor and major economic infrastructures for the islands. As sea level rises, concerns are growing regarding the possibility of repeated chronic flooding events, which would alter the operations at these critical coastal infrastructures without appropriate adaptation. Here, we use information on past and future sea levels, vertical ground motion, and tides to assess times of emergence of chronic flooding in the Petit Cul-de-sac marin. For RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; i.e., continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions), the number of flood days is projected to increase rapidly after the emergence of the process so that coastal sites will be flooded 180 d a year within 2 decades of the onset of chronic flooding. For coastal locations with the lowest altitude, we show that the reconstructed number of floods is consistent with observations known from a previous survey. Vertical ground motions are a key source of uncertainty in our projections. Yet, our satellite interferometric synthetic-aperture radar results show that the local variability in this subsidence is smaller than the uncertainties in the technique, which we estimate to be between 1 (standard deviation of measurements) and 5 mm/yr (upper theoretical bound). Despite these uncertainties, our results imply that adaptation pathways considering a rapid increase in recurrent chronic flooding are required for the critical port and industrial and commercial center of Guadeloupe. Similar processes are expected to take place in many low-elevation coastal zones worldwide, including on other tropical islands. The method used in this study can be applied to other locations, provided tide gauge records and local knowledge of vertical ground motions are available. We argue that identifying times of emergence of chronic flooding events is urgently needed in most low-lying coastal areas, because adaptation requires decades to be implemented, whereas chronic flooding hazards can worsen drastically within years of the first event being observed.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/21/703/2021/nhess-21-703-2021.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/56253dd76d7746b28482e8476b3a59e4Test

المؤلفون: J. Rohmer, D. Idier, R. Thieblemont, G. Le Cozannet, F. Bachoc

المصدر: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 3167-3182 (2022)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5

الوصف: Getting a deep insight into the role of coastal flooding drivers is of great interest for the planning of adaptation strategies for future climate conditions. Using global sensitivity analysis, we aim to measure the contributions of the offshore forcing conditions (wave–wind characteristics, still water level and sea level rise (SLR) projected up to 2200) to the occurrence of a flooding event at Gâvres town on the French Atlantic coast in a macrotidal environment. This procedure faces, however, two major difficulties, namely (1) the high computational time costs of the hydrodynamic numerical simulations and (2) the statistical dependence between the forcing conditions. By applying a Monte Carlo-based approach combined with multivariate extreme value analysis, our study proposes a procedure to overcome both difficulties by calculating sensitivity measures dedicated to dependent input variables (named Shapley effects) using Gaussian process (GP) metamodels. On this basis, our results show the increasing influence of SLR over time and a small-to-moderate contribution of wave–wind characteristics or even negligible importance in the very long term (beyond 2100). These results were discussed in relation to our modelling choices, in particular the climate change scenario, as well as the uncertainties of the estimation procedure (Monte Carlo sampling and GP error).

العلاقة: https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/3167/2022/nhess-22-3167-2022.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981Test; https://doaj.org/article/1c74757793cb420b8c479e3832db911bTest

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022Test
https://doaj.org/article/1c74757793cb420b8c479e3832db911bTest

المؤلفون: J. Rohmer, R. Thieblemont, G. Le Cozannet, H. Goelzer, G. Durand

المصدر: The Cryosphere, Vol 16, Pp 4637-4657 (2022)

مصطلحات موضوعية: Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Geology, QE1-996.5

الوصف: Process-based projections of the sea-level contribution from land ice components are often obtained from simulations using a complex chain of numerical models. Because of their importance in supporting the decision-making process for coastal risk assessment and adaptation, improving the interpretability of these projections is of great interest. To this end, we adopt the local attribution approach developed in the machine learning community known as “SHAP” (SHapley Additive exPlanations). We apply our methodology to a subset of the multi-model ensemble study of the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level, taking into account different modelling choices related to (1) numerical implementation, (2) initial conditions, (3) modelling of ice-sheet processes, and (4) environmental forcing. This allows us to quantify the influence of particular modelling decisions, which is directly expressed in terms of sea-level change contribution. This type of diagnosis can be performed on any member of the ensemble, and we show in the Greenland case how the aggregation of the local attribution analyses can help guide future model development as well as scientific interpretation, particularly with regard to spatial model resolution and to retreat parametrisation.

العلاقة: https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/4637/2022/tc-16-4637-2022.pdfTest; https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424Test; https://doaj.org/article/f55168a8b86f495b9b90ea928d0f0c04Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4637-2022Test
https://doaj.org/article/f55168a8b86f495b9b90ea928d0f0c04Test

المؤلفون: I. A. Daglis, L. C. Chang, S. Dasso, N. Gopalswamy, O. V. Khabarova, E. Kilpua, R. Lopez, D. Marsh, K. Matthes, D. Nandy, A. Seppälä, K. Shiokawa, R. Thiéblemont, Q. Zong

المساهمون: Department of Physics, Space Physics Research Group, Doctoral Programme in Particle Physics and Universe Sciences

المصدر: Annales Geophysicae, Vol 39, Pp 1013-1035 (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: THERMOSPHERE, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, QC1-999, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, PROPAGATION, ACCELERATION, 114 Physical sciences, 01 natural sciences, EVENTS, 0103 physical sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, INTERPLANETARY SHOCKS, QC801-809, Physics, SPACE WEATHER, Geology, Astronomy and Astrophysics, WIND, DRIVEN, CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS, VARIABILITY, Space and Planetary Science

الوصف: In October 2017, the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) Bureau established a committee for the design of SCOSTEP's Next Scientific Programme (NSP). The NSP committee members and authors of this paper decided from the very beginning of their deliberations that the predictability of the Sun–Earth System from a few hours to centuries is a timely scientific topic, combining the interests of different topical communities in a relevant way. Accordingly, the NSP was christened PRESTO – PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling. This paper presents a detailed account of PRESTO; we show the key milestones of the PRESTO roadmap for the next 5 years, review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.

وصف الملف: application/pdf; text

الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::aa90dd8bed187edb039f4a2d8f86594dTest