| مستخلص: |
In Asia, rice is one of the most consumed crops which make it necessary to preserve the sustainability of the sector. Among many agricultural sectors, paddy production sector is found to be the most vulnerable sector to changes in climate. Although the change and consequence of climate change towards rice sector are beyond human power, rice producer should have the awareness on the consequences and be prepared with long run adaptive strategy to withstand climate change phenomena as it will not only stay for a few years but may continue for decades. One way of ensuring the sustainability of rice production is taking the right adaptive strategy through knowing how vulnerable the paddy production sector towards the climate change. Therefore, this study focused on measuring the vulnerability of paddy production towards climate change using Principal Component Analysis and mapped using 3.18 QGIS software. Based on previous studies, it is known that vulnerabilities could be assessed based on three dimensions i.e. exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure contains of four indicators which are the minimum rainfall, maximum rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. For sensitivity, the utilized indicators cover harvest area, rural population and land area equipped with irrigation. Meanwhile, proxied variables for adaptive capacity are rice income, rice output and GDP. The results and the patterns showed that top three most vulnerable countries among 20 main paddy producers in Asia were India, Indonesia, and Malaysia. On the other hand, China and Japan were listed as the least vulnerable countries. It was also found that across 26 years period, no significant trends were detected using Mann-Kendal test, across the vulnerability scores for the top 3 most vulnerable countries. As climate change is continuous phenomena and endures long term process, long term adaptation is essential for example, through coping with technological advancement to ensure sustainability in paddy production in Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
