Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis
| العنوان: | Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis |
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| المؤلفون: | Jamie Perin, Yue Chu, Francisco Villavicencio, Austin Schumacher, Tyler McCormick, Michel Guillot, Li Liu |
| المصدر: | Population Health Metrics, Vol 20, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2022) Population Health Metrics |
| بيانات النشر: | BMC, 2022. |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | RESPIRATORY_DISEASES, China, Epidemiology, MODELS, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Injury, Under-five mortality, Infant mortality, Cause of Death, Humans, Life Tables, Child, NEONATAL_MORTALITY, Neonatal mortality, Research, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Pneumonia, INFANT_MORTALITY, Child, Preschool, Child Mortality, SIMULATION, INJURIES, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270 |
| الوصف: | Background The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform health programming, however, to date the causes of under-five death have only been described for broad age categories such as for neonates (0–27 days), infants (0–11 months), and children age 12–59 months. Methods We adapt the log quadratic model to mortality patterns for children under five to all-cause child mortality and then to age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM). We apply these methods to empirical sample registration system mortality data in China from 1996 to 2015. Based on these empirical data, we simulate probabilities of mortality in the case when the true relationships between age and mortality by cause are known. Results We estimate U5ACSM within 0.1–0.7 deaths per 1000 livebirths in hold out strata for life tables constructed from the China sample registration system, representing considerable improvement compared to an error of 1.2 per 1000 livebirths using a standard approach. This improved prediction error for U5ACSM is consistently demonstrated for all-cause as well as pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality. We also consistently identified cause-specific mortality patterns in simulated mortality scenarios. Conclusion The log quadratic model is a significant improvement over the standard approach for deriving U5ACSM based on both simulation and empirical results. |
| وصف الملف: | |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1478-7954 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::c44dbfb9dd9e9f671c9b4d704c7c67e1Test https://doaj.org/article/9376423c7000486fb42e7acd443c6073Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....c44dbfb9dd9e9f671c9b4d704c7c67e1 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14787954 |
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