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1تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General
الوصف: The present study has been conducted in the year 2008 to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan during 1970-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006 on total exports, primary commodities exports, semi-manufactures and exports of manufactured goods has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for checking the stationarity of the data. Furthermore, the Johenson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) has been used to detect the long-term relationship among the series. The method of ordinary least square has been used to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan. The results indicate that 1% increase in the exports of primary commodities brings 0.97% increase in total exports in Pakistan. Similarly, 1% increase in the exports of semi-manufactures leads to increase total exports by 0.99%. On similar pattern, 1% increase in the exports of manufactured goods leads to increase total exports by 1%. The coefficients of all the explanatory variables are statistically significant at both 5% and 1% level of significance. It is recommended to increase the exports of primary goods, semi-manufactures and manufactured goods so as make balance of trade favorable.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41988/1/MPRA_paper_41988.pdfTest; Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain (2010): Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006). Published in: Journal of Huminities and Social Sciences , Vol. 18, No. 1 (2010): pp. 102-108.
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2تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, N7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services
الوصف: The paper evaluates the determinants of gas energy consumption in Pakistan during 1971-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1971 to 2006 has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). For the analysis of the data, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, Jhonson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) and the method of ordinary least square have been used. The results indicate that 1% each increase in the gas energy consumption in the household, cement, fertilizer, power and industry sector brings 1.04%, 1.03%, 0.95%, 0.97% and 1.37% change in the total energy consumption respectively. The coefficients of all the explanatory variables are statistically significant at both 5% and 1% level of significance. It is recommended to increase the gas energy supply to meet the requirement in the household and industry sector.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/41993/1/MPRA_paper_41993.pdfTest; Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain (2009): Determinants of Gas Energy Consumption in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1971-2006). Published in: PUTAJ Humanities and Social Sciences , Vol. 16, (2009): pp. 57-66.
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3تقرير
المؤلفون: Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan, Khattak, Naeem U Rehman Khattak, Hussain, Anwar Hussain, Jehanzeb, Jehanzeb
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General, eco, manag
الوصف: The paper critically analyzes the effect of budget deficit on private and public investment. Annual data for the period 1960-2005, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistic is used for analysis. Simultaneous equation model is used for estimation. The study revealed that bank credit to private sector, government domestic bank borrowing, and foreign reserves have positive significant effect on money supply. Demand for money is positively related to out put and negatively to interest rate. Out put is positively related to consumption expenditure, private investment, public investment, balance of trade and negatively related to real interest rate. Private investment is positively related to out put, bank credit to private sector and negatively related to interest rate. The relationship between private investment and interest rate is statistically significant only at 10%, signifying that interest rate is not affecting private investment because of the greater return to private investors. Public investment is positively related to out put and foreign reserve and negatively to real interest rate. Both domestic bank borrowing and foreign borrowing to finance budget deficit crowded-in private and public investment with same elasticity, but foreign borrowing encourage foreign reserve outflow. Based on findings of the study it is recommended that domestic sources of financing including domestic non-bank borrowing and bank borrowing should encourage for budget deficit financing.
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42010/1/MPRA_paper_42010.pdfTest; https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42010Test/
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4تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General, stat, eco
الوصف: This paper critically evaluates the inter-relationship, vulnerability to innovation, and causality among the macroeconomic variables (budget deficit, economic growth, unemployment and poverty). Annual data for the period 1960-2005 is used, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistics. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with impulse response function (IRF), error variance decomposition and Granger Causality test is used for the analysis. The study revealed that any innovation of one standard deviation took seven years for economic growth and budget deficit, eight years for unemployment and more than ten years for poverty reduction. The response of the macroeconomic variables to innovation or impulses introduced is mostly explained in their own. Only two unilateral causality are found. Bilateral causality is not found, and mostly independent type relationships are detected. Based on the finding of the study it is recommended, that target oriented fiscal policies should be focused on and the gap between policy formation and implementation must be reduced.
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42034/1/MPRA_paper_42034.pdfTest; https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42034Test/
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5تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General, stat, eco
الوصف: This paper critically analyzes the effect of growth in real GDP on reduction in unemployment. In this paper deviated value of GDP and unemployment from long term trend is used. Annual data for the period 1960-2005, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistic is used for analysis. The study revealed that growth in real GDP is negatively related to unemployment. The negative effect of GDP growth on unemployment reduction is low, implies that other factors like lose employment policies and non availability of professional skills retard the employment generating capacity of GDP growth rate. The results signify the threshold level of GDP growth rate. Based on the findings of the study it is recommended that market based economy development is needed. Privatization which is believed to be depending on efficiency may help in this regard. Long term skill development and merit based recruitment policies may also accelerate employment generating capacity of output growth. If government of Pakistan want to retard unemployment they must maintain GDP growth rate above the threshold level other wise unemployment will rise instead of retarding it.
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42036/1/MPRA_paper_42036.pdfTest; https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42036Test/
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6تقرير
المؤلفون: Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan, Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak, Khattak, M Saghir, Hussain, Anwar Hussain
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General, eco, stat
الوصف: The paper critically appraises causality, susceptibility to innovation of budget deficit, domestic borrowing from banking system and foreign borrowing. Secondary data is used, which was taken from annual Economic Survey of Pakistan (various issues), and International Financial Statistics (2005). For analysis, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with Impulse Response Function (IRF), Error Variance Decomposition and Granger Causality test is used. The study revealed that any innovation of one standard deviation took seven years for budget deficit and more than ten years for domestic bank borrowing and foreign borrowing to be effective. The variation in budget deficit is mostly explained by itself. Most of the variation in domestic bank borrowing is explained by budget deficit, while variation in foreign borrowing is mostly explained by budget deficit and domestic bank borrowing. Two unilateral causality are found and no bilateral causality, and in mostly independent relationships have been detected. Based on the finding the study suggests parallel and harmonized fiscal and monetary policy to reduce foreign reserves outflow. Fiscal policy is more vulnerable to shocks or innovations and monetary policy took longer time to become effective, so the gap between monetary policy formation and its implementation must be reduced.
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42031/1/MPRA_paper_42031.pdfTest; https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42031Test/
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7تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General
الوصف: This paper critically analyzes the effect of growth in real GDP on reduction in unemployment. In this paper deviated value of GDP and unemployment from long term trend is used. Annual data for the period 1960-2005, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistic is used for analysis. The study revealed that growth in real GDP is negatively related to unemployment. The negative effect of GDP growth on unemployment reduction is low, implies that other factors like lose employment policies and non availability of professional skills retard the employment generating capacity of GDP growth rate. The results signify the threshold level of GDP growth rate. Based on the findings of the study it is recommended that market based economy development is needed. Privatization which is believed to be depending on efficiency may help in this regard. Long term skill development and merit based recruitment policies may also accelerate employment generating capacity of output growth. If government of Pakistan want to retard unemployment they must maintain GDP growth rate above the threshold level other wise unemployment will rise instead of retarding it.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42036/1/MPRA_paper_42036.pdfTest; Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan and Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain (2008): Inter-Relationship of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth and Unemployment in Pakistan (1960-2005). Published in: Journal of Law and Society , Vol. XXXVII, No. 51 (2008): pp. 77-84.
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8تقرير
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General
الوصف: This paper critically evaluates the inter-relationship, vulnerability to innovation, and causality among the macroeconomic variables (budget deficit, economic growth, unemployment and poverty). Annual data for the period 1960-2005 is used, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistics. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with impulse response function (IRF), error variance decomposition and Granger Causality test is used for the analysis. The study revealed that any innovation of one standard deviation took seven years for economic growth and budget deficit, eight years for unemployment and more than ten years for poverty reduction. The response of the macroeconomic variables to innovation or impulses introduced is mostly explained in their own. Only two unilateral causality are found. Bilateral causality is not found, and mostly independent type relationships are detected. Based on the finding of the study it is recommended, that target oriented fiscal policies should be focused on and the gap between policy formation and implementation must be reduced.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42034/1/MPRA_paper_42034.pdfTest; Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan and Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain (2008): Inter-dependencies and Causality in the Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Pakistan (1960-2005). Sarhad J. Agric. 24 (1): 199-205. Published in: Sarhad Journal of Agriculture , Vol. 24, No. 1 (2008): pp. 199-205.
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9تقرير
المؤلفون: Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan, Khattak, Naeem U Rehman Khattak, Hussain, Anwar Hussain, Jehanzeb, Jehanzeb
مصطلحات موضوعية: B22 - Macroeconomics, A10 - General
الوصف: The paper critically analyzes the effect of budget deficit on private and public investment. Annual data for the period 1960-2005, taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan and International Financial Statistic is used for analysis. Simultaneous equation model is used for estimation. The study revealed that bank credit to private sector, government domestic bank borrowing, and foreign reserves have positive significant effect on money supply. Demand for money is positively related to out put and negatively to interest rate. Out put is positively related to consumption expenditure, private investment, public investment, balance of trade and negatively related to real interest rate. Private investment is positively related to out put, bank credit to private sector and negatively related to interest rate. The relationship between private investment and interest rate is statistically significant only at 10%, signifying that interest rate is not affecting private investment because of the greater return to private investors. Public investment is positively related to out put and foreign reserve and negatively to real interest rate. Both domestic bank borrowing and foreign borrowing to finance budget deficit crowded-in private and public investment with same elasticity, but foreign borrowing encourage foreign reserve outflow. Based on findings of the study it is recommended that domestic sources of financing including domestic non-bank borrowing and bank borrowing should encourage for budget deficit financing.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
العلاقة: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42010/1/MPRA_paper_42010.pdfTest; Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan and Khattak, Naeem U Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain and Jehanzeb, Jehanzeb (2008): Crowding-in Effect of Budget Deficit: Evidence from Pakistan (1960-2005). Published in: Sarhad Journal of Agriculture , Vol. 24, No. 4 (2008): pp. 677-683.
