التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
An Agent-Based Transmission Model of Major Infectious Diseases Considering Places: Forecast and Control. |
| المؤلفون: |
Zhang, Jingwen, Rong, Lili, Gong, Yufan |
| المصدر: |
Mathematics (2227-7390); Mar2024, Vol. 12 Issue 6, p811, 21p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
COMMUNICABLE diseases, INFECTIOUS disease transmission, TRAVEL regulations, EMERGENCY management |
| مصطلحات جغرافية: |
YANGZHOU (Jiangsu Sheng, China) |
| مستخلص: |
This paper enhances the agent model of ordinary individuals by incorporating the roles of places in the transmission, prevention, and control in the process, establishing a fundamental connection between these two types of agents through individual travel rules. The impact of real-world prevention and control measures on regional epidemic transmission is studied based on this model. Firstly, based on the analysis of place elements in typical cases of major infectious diseases, we give the classification of places. Secondly, the resident agent and the place agent are constructed and rules are established to form an agent-based major infectious disease transmission model considering the place. Then, the simulation process is established and an ideal regional environment is constructed to simulate overall changes in major infectious disease scale and spread speed. Additionally, evolutionary simulations are conducted for individual isolation intensity and place control time during emergency management stages to compare infection outcomes, and we analyze different roles and application scenarios of specific prevention and control measures. Finally, simulation results from real major infectious disease cases in Yangzhou, China, validate the effectiveness of this model in predicting major infectious disease development trends as well as evaluating prevention and control measure effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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