كتاب
The reproductive number R0 of COVID-19 in Peru: An opportunity for effective changes
| العنوان: | The reproductive number R0 of COVID-19 in Peru: An opportunity for effective changes |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Diaz Velez, Cristian |
| المساهمون: | Torres Roman, J. Smith, Cabos Kobiak, Ilia, Valcarcel, Bryan, La Vecchia, Carlo |
| المصدر: | Repositorio Institucional - UCV ; Universidad César Vallejo |
| بيانات النشر: | Universidad César Vallejo |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | Repositorio de la Universidad César Vallejo |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | COVID-19, Coronavirus - Investigación Infecciones respiratorias, Coronavirus |
| الوصف: | On December 31, 2019, the city of Wuhan, from the People's Republic of China, reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) around twenty-seven cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology, which was identified on January 7, 2020, as new coronavirus (nCOV) [1]. Subsequently, the WHO named it as COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019). Peru reported, on March 06, the first imported case of COVID-19 in a Peruvian man with travel history to Europe. Then, other cases were confirmed among his relatives [2]. Given the increase in the number of cases, on March 15, the Peruvian president declared a State of Emergency, compulsory social isolation, and international border closure. The mechanism of transmission of COVID-19 is through person-toperson contact. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the likelihood of the spread of the disease in Peru and the Lima province. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 during its early outbreak in the Lima province and Peru. R0 was calculated to estimate the spread of COVID-19 in the Lima province and Peru. The R0 is a measure to quantify the probability of new cases that result from an effective contact with an infected individual. It depends on a specific point in time and the social behavior of a community. Therefore, it is unique for a specific population and region. Data was extracted the reports of the Peruvian Ministry of Health. The “incidence” package was used to calculate the incidence in the selected 5-day time frame. Moreover, we retrieved the R0 with the Poisson likelihood technique using the “earlyR” package and made the graphics with the “ggplot2” package. All analysis was made in the R software version 3.6.2. The overall basic reproductive number of Peru during the outbreak period was 2.97 (See Fig. 1), meaning that a single case could have infected almost 3 different persons. Lima had a similar outcome with an R0 of 2.88. After the declaration of the State of Emergency, the R0 are expected to decrease. However, several remarks may ... |
| نوع الوثيقة: | book |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| العلاقة: | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12692/46080Test |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/20.500.12692/46080Test https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12692/46080Test |
| حقوق: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.13064FB1 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| الوصف غير متاح. |