دورية أكاديمية
Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals
| العنوان: | Methane and the Paris Agreement temperature goals |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Cain, Michelle, Jenkins, Stuart, Allen, Myles R., Lynch, John, Frame, David J., MacEy, Adrian H., Peters, Glen Philip |
| المصدر: | 0 ; 380 ; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences ; 2215 |
| بيانات النشر: | The Royal Society publishing |
| سنة النشر: | 2022 |
| الوصف: | Meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goal necessitates limiting methane (CH4)-induced warming, in addition to achieving net-zero or (net-negative) carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In our model, for the median 1.5°C scenario between 2020 and 2050, CH4 mitigation lowers temperatures by 0.1°C; CO2 increases it by 0.2°C. CO2 emissions continue increasing global mean temperature until net-zero emissions are reached, with potential for lowering temperatures with net-negative emissions. By contrast, reducing CH4 emissions starts to reverse CH4-induced warming within a few decades. These differences are hidden when framing climate mitigation using annual ‘CO2-equivalent’ emissions, including targets based on aggregated annual emission rates. We show how the different warming responses to CO2 and CH4 emissions can be accurately aggregated to estimate warming by using ‘warming-equivalent emissions', which provide a transparent and convenient method to inform policies and measures for mitigation, or demonstrate progress towards a temperature goal. The method presented (GWP*) uses well-established climate science concepts to relate GWP100 to temperature, as a simple proxy for a climate model. The use of warming-equivalent emissions for nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies would enhance the transparency of stocktakes of progress towards a long-term temperature goal, compared to the use of standard equivalence methods. ; publishedVersion |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1364-503X |
| العلاقة: | EC/H2020/821205; EC/H2020/820846; EC/H2020/821003; Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2022, 380 (2215), .; urn:issn:1364-503X; https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998544Test; https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0456Test; cristin:2019239 |
| DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2020.0456 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2020.0456Test https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998544Test |
| حقوق: | Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal ; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.noTest |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.920E03AE |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| تدمد: | 1364503X |
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| DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2020.0456 |