دورية أكاديمية
How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system
| العنوان: | How noise and coupling influence leading indicators of population extinction in a spatially extended ecological system |
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| المؤلفون: | Suzanne M. O'Regan |
| المصدر: | Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 211-241 (2018) |
| بيانات النشر: | Taylor & Francis Group, 2018. |
| سنة النشر: | 2018 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Environmental sciences LCC:Biology (General) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | early warning signals, environmental stochasticity, transcritical bifurcation, metapopulation, population collapse, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Biology (General), QH301-705.5 |
| الوصف: | Anticipating critical transitions in spatially extended systems is a key topic of interest to ecologists. Gradually declining metapopulations are an important example of a spatially extended biological system that may exhibit a critical transition. Theory for spatially extended systems approaching extinction that accounts for environmental stochasticity and coupling is currently lacking. Here, we develop spatially implicit two-patch models with additive and multiplicative forms of environmental stochasticity that are slowly forced through population collapse, through changing environmental conditions. We derive patch-specific expressions for candidate indicators of extinction and test their performance via a simulation study. Coupling and spatial heterogeneities decrease the magnitude of the proposed indicators in coupled populations relative to isolated populations, and the noise regime and the degree of coupling together determine trends in summary statistics. This theory may be readily applied to other spatially extended ecological systems, such as coupled infectious disease systems on the verge of elimination. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 1751-3758 1751-3766 17513758 |
| العلاقة: | https://doaj.org/toc/1751-3758Test; https://doaj.org/toc/1751-3766Test |
| DOI: | 10.1080/17513758.2017.1339834 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://doaj.org/article/a74e757013814ad3878d1794f45bc814Test |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsdoj.74e757013814ad3878d1794f45bc814 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| تدمد: | 17513758 17513766 |
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| DOI: | 10.1080/17513758.2017.1339834 |