Purpose Operable thoracic esophageal/gastroesophageal junction carcinoma (EC) is often treated with chemoradiation and surgery but tumor responses are unpredictable and heterogeneous. We hypothesized that aldehyde dehydrogenase-1 ( ALDH-1 ) could be associated with response. Methods The labeling indices (LIs) of ALDH-1 by immunohistochemistry in untreated tumor specimens were established in EC patients who had chemoradiation and surgery. Univariate logistic regression and 3-fold cross validation were carried out for the training (67% of patients) and validation (33%) sets. Non-clinical experiments in EC cells were performed to generate complimentary data. Results Of 167 EC patients analyzed, 40 (24%) had a pathologic complete response (pathCR) and 27 (16%) had an extremely resistant (exCRTR) cancer. The median ALDH-1 LI was 0.2 (range, 0.01–0.85). There was a significant association between pathCR and low ALDH-1 LI ( p ≤ 0.001; odds-ratio [OR] = 0.432). The 3-fold cross validation led to a concordance index (C-index) of 0.798 for the fitted model. There was a significant association between exCRTR and high ALDH-1 LI ( p ≤ 0.001; OR = 3.782). The 3-fold cross validation led to the C-index of 0.960 for the fitted model. In several cell lines, higher ALDH-1 LIs correlated with resistant/aggressive phenotype. Cells with induced chemotherapy resistance upregulated ALDH-1 and resistance conferring genes ( SOX9 and YAP1 ). Sorted ALDH-1+ cells were more resistant and had an aggressive phenotype in tumor spheres than ALDH-1− cells. Conclusions Our clinical and non-clinical data demonstrate that ALDH-1 LIs are predictive of response to therapy and further research could lead to individualized therapeutic strategies and novel therapeutic targets for EC patients.
