Influence of segment length on the fitness of multivariate crash prediction models applied to a Brazilian multilane highway

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: Influence of segment length on the fitness of multivariate crash prediction models applied to a Brazilian multilane highway
المؤلفون: Michelle Andrade, Philippe Barbosa Silva, Sara Ferreira
المساهمون: Faculdade de Engenharia
المصدر: IATSS Research, Vol 45, Iss 4, Pp 493-502 (2021)
بيانات النشر: Elsevier, 2021.
سنة النشر: 2021
مصطلحات موضوعية: Multivariate statistics, Computer science, Road safety modeling, Engenharia civil, Engenharia civil, Crash prediction, Transportation, Crash, Residual, Road segment length, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Segmentation, Carriageway, 0502 economics and business, Statistics, Civil engineering, Civil engineering, 030212 general & internal medicine, HE1-9990, 050210 logistics & transportation, Partial residual plot, Artificial neural network, 05 social sciences, General Engineering, Statistical model, Neural network, Urban Studies, Engenharia civil [Ciências da engenharia e tecnologias], Civil engineering [Engineering and technology], Safety Research, Transportation and communications
الوصف: Road safety modeling enables the development of crash prediction models and the investigation of which factors contribute to crash occurrence. Developing multivariate response models is also valuable, but such models are currently under-exploited. Machine learning techniques, especially artificial neural networks (ANN), have been presented as possible alternatives. Furthermore, selecting a proper roadway segmentation is one of the first tasks in the standard crash modeling workflow. However, this is a challenging task, especially in terms of choosing a segment length. This article presents a study of the influence of segment length on the development of multivariate response models (i.e., three response variables: property damage only crashes, injured victims crashes, and fatal crashes). The models use ANN for a road segment of a Brazilian divided multilane highway. The highway to be modeled was divided into segments with 10 different fixed lengths. The model characterization included geometric and operational data available for the years from 2011 to 2017. The models were evaluated in terms of errors and by residual plot analysis. The 5-km segment of the northbound carriageway and the 4.5-km segment of the southbound carriageway presented the smallest errors and the highest values of R2. The residual analyses confirmed the trend to improve the model with the greater segment lengths. This was clear by the residues' distribution around zero, except for the output “Fatal crashes”. The better performance of the longer segments models was expected because these models aggregate more crashes into one segment. The reduction of no crash observations also facilitated the improvement of the models' goodness-of-fit. The use of ANNs also revealed its potential value. However, it is still important to seek strategies to deal with the excess of zeros in fatal crashes; a problem that also occurs in the traditional statistical modeling process.
وصف الملف: application/pdf
اللغة: English
تدمد: 0386-1112
الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::d998ebe6cd42e6536c7b22e8576f32eaTest
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0386111221000236Test
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi.dedup.....d998ebe6cd42e6536c7b22e8576f32ea
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE