دورية أكاديمية
A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics
| العنوان: | A combination of annual and nonannual forces drive respiratory disease in the tropics |
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| المؤلفون: | Nguyen Van Vinh Chau, Pham Quang Thai, Marc Choisy, Nguyen Thi Le Thanh, Fuhan Yang, Joseph L Servadio, Ha Minh Lam, Tran Thi Nhu Thao, Nguyen Ha Thao Vy, Huynh Thi Phuong, Tran Dang Nguyen, Dong Thi Hoai Tam, Ephraim M Hanks, Ha Vinh, Ottar N Bjornstad, Maciej F Boni |
| المصدر: | BMJ Global Health, Vol 8, Iss 11 (2023) |
| بيانات النشر: | BMJ Publishing Group, 2023. |
| سنة النشر: | 2023 |
| المجموعة: | LCC:Medicine (General) LCC:Infectious and parasitic diseases |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Medicine (General), R5-920, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216 |
| الوصف: | Introduction It is well known that influenza and other respiratory viruses are wintertime-seasonal in temperate regions. However, respiratory disease seasonality in the tropics is less well understood. In this study, we aimed to characterise the seasonality of influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.Methods We monitored the daily number of ILI patients in 89 outpatient clinics from January 2010 to December 2019. We collected nasal swabs and tested for influenza from a subset of clinics from May 2012 to December 2019. We used spectral analysis to describe the periodic signals in the system. We evaluated the contribution of these periodic signals to predicting ILI and influenza patterns through lognormal and gamma hurdle models.Results During 10 years of community surveillance, 66 799 ILI reports were collected covering 2.9 million patient visits; 2604 nasal swabs were collected, 559 of which were PCR-positive for influenza virus. Both annual and nonannual cycles were detected in the ILI time series, with the annual cycle showing 8.9% lower ILI activity (95% CI 8.8% to 9.0%) from February 24 to May 15. Nonannual cycles had substantial explanatory power for ILI trends (ΔAIC=183) compared with all annual covariates (ΔAIC=263) in lognormal regression. Near-annual signals were observed for PCR-confirmed influenza but were not consistent over time or across influenza (sub)types. The explanatory power of climate factors for ILI and influenza virus trends was weak.Conclusion Our study reveals a unique pattern of respiratory disease dynamics in a tropical setting influenced by both annual and nonannual drivers, with influenza dynamics showing near-annual periodicities. Timing of vaccination campaigns and hospital capacity planning may require a complex forecasting approach. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article |
| وصف الملف: | electronic resource |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 2059-7908 |
| العلاقة: | https://gh.bmj.com/content/8/11/e013054.fullTest; https://doaj.org/toc/2059-7908Test |
| DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013054 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://doaj.org/article/91b15f41ea12481db1f49dc8da50dd43Test |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsdoj.91b15f41ea12481db1f49dc8da50dd43 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
Full Text Finder | تدمد: | 20597908 |
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| DOI: | 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013054 |