The Bayesian Forecasting of the Bridge Deflection Based on Constant Mean Discount Model

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
العنوان: The Bayesian Forecasting of the Bridge Deflection Based on Constant Mean Discount Model
المؤلفون: Quansheng Yan, Shuangrui Chen
المصدر: The Open Civil Engineering Journal. 9:1016-1021
بيانات النشر: Bentham Science Publishers Ltd., 2015.
سنة النشر: 2015
مصطلحات موضوعية: Engineering, Mathematical optimization, Conditional equation, Deflection (engineering), business.industry, Bayesian probability, Econometrics, Forecasting theory, business, Prior information, Confidence interval, Civil and Structural Engineering
الوصف: Subject to various factors under loading, bridges appear to be discrete. Thus, it is unavoidable to take the practical bridge into consideration with regard to the bridge deflection forecasting. Given this, the Bayesian dynamic forecasting theory is introduced to forecast the bridge deflection. Since the bridge deflection can stay stable in a long term, create constant mean discount Bayesian conditional equation and observational equation and deduce the Bayesian posterior probability of the bridge deflection conditional parameters on the basis of the prior information of the parameters. With recursive deduction, the conditional parameters keep updating as observational data are imported. The results of Bayesian forecasting comprise values and confidence interval, which makes it more instructive. Finally, practical examples are adopted to examine the superior performance of Bayesian dynamic forecasting theory.
تدمد: 1874-1495
الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::8d3e4bc8876f2f48cc142b89138d3ee0Test
https://doi.org/10.2174/1874149501509011016Test
حقوق: OPEN
رقم الانضمام: edsair.doi...........8d3e4bc8876f2f48cc142b89138d3ee0
قاعدة البيانات: OpenAIRE