Unité de Recherche sur les Maladies Cardiovasculaires, du Métabolisme et de la Nutrition = Research Unit on Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases (ICAN), Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut de Cardiométabolisme et Nutrition = Institute of Cardiometabolism and Nutrition [CHU Pitié Salpêtrière] (IHU ICAN), CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU), REanimation et Soins intensifs du Patient en Insuffisance Respiratoire aigüE [CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière] (GRC RESPIRE), Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Neurophysiologie Respiratoire Expérimentale et Clinique (UMRS 1158), Département Médico-Universitaire APPROCHES, CHU Tenon [AP-HP], Groupe de recherche clinique CARMAS (Cardiovascular and Respiratory Manifestations of Acute lung injury and Sepsis) (CARMAS), Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-CHU Henri Mondor, Laboratoire d'Imagerie Biomédicale (LIB), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Pharmacoépidémiologie de l'AP-HP (Cephepi), INSERM UMRS-1144, Université Paris Cité, Réanimation Médicale et Toxicologique, Hôpital Lariboisière, Mégarbane, Bruno
المصدر:
Annals of Intensive Care Annals of Intensive Care, 2021, 11 (1), pp.170. ⟨10.1186/s13613-021-00956-9⟩ Annals of Intensive Care, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-15 (2021)
Background Predicting outcomes of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients with coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is a major challenge to avoid futile, and prolonged ICU stays. Methods The objective was to develop predictive survival models for patients with COVID-19 after 1-to-2 weeks in ICU. Based on the COVID–ICU cohort, which prospectively collected characteristics, management, and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19. Machine learning was used to develop dynamic, clinically useful models able to predict 90-day mortality using ICU data collected on day (D) 1, D7 or D14. Results Survival of Severely Ill COVID (SOSIC)-1, SOSIC-7, and SOSIC-14 scores were constructed with 4244, 2877, and 1349 patients, respectively, randomly assigned to development or test datasets. The three models selected 15 ICU-entry variables recorded on D1, D7, or D14. Cardiovascular, renal, and pulmonary functions on prediction D7 or D14 were among the most heavily weighted inputs for both models. For the test dataset, SOSIC-7’s area under the ROC curve was slightly higher (0.80 [0.74–0.86]) than those for SOSIC-1 (0.76 [0.71–0.81]) and SOSIC-14 (0.76 [0.68–0.83]). Similarly, SOSIC-1 and SOSIC-7 had excellent calibration curves, with similar Brier scores for the three models. Conclusion The SOSIC scores showed that entering 15 to 27 baseline and dynamic clinical parameters into an automatable XGBoost algorithm can potentially accurately predict the likely 90-day mortality post-ICU admission (sosic.shinyapps.io/shiny). Although external SOSIC-score validation is still needed, it is an additional tool to strengthen decisions about life-sustaining treatments and informing family members of likely prognosis.
