المؤلفون: Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer, Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill, Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Krüger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, Martin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin Nassehi, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara Prainsack, Joacim Rocklöv, Eva Schernhammer, Anthony Staines, Ewa Szczurek, Sotirios Tsiodras, Steven Van Gucht, Peter Willeit

المصدر: The Lancet Regional Health. Europe, Vol 8, Iss , Pp 100185- (2021)

مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, expert survey, Delphi study, group forecast, non-pharmaceutical interventions, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270

الوصف: How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

وصف الملف: electronic resource

العلاقة: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776221001629Test; https://doaj.org/toc/2666-7762Test

الوصول الحر: https://doaj.org/article/c003f89515a642a6b8c0e53e8b9c89dbTest

المؤلفون: Jitka Polechová (Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna), Kory D. Johnson (Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, TU Wien), Pavel Payne (Central European Institute of Technology, Masaryk University), Alex Crozier (Division of Biosciences, University College London), Mathias Beiglböck (Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna), Pavel Plevka (Central European Institute of Technology, Masaryk University), Eva Schernhammer (Department of Epidemiology, Center for Public Health, Medical University of Vienna)

المصدر: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology ; issn:0895-4356

مصطلحات موضوعية: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Lateral flow device, Public health, Repeat testing, Large-scale testing

الوصف: The abstract is available here: https://uscholar.univie.ac.at/o:1624548Test ; The abstract is available here: https://uscholar.univie.ac.at/o:1624548Test

وصف الملف: application/pdf

العلاقة: hdl:11353/10.1624548; https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:1624548Test

الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.01.002Test
https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:1624548Test

المؤلفون: Thomas Czypionka, Emil N. Iftekhar, Barbara Prainsack, Viola Priesemann, Simon Bauer, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill, Jenny Krutzinna, Christos Lionis, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, George N. Pavlakis, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Alexander Skupin, Eva Schernhammer, Ewa Szczurek, Sotirios Tsiodras, Peter Willeit, Paul Wilmes

المساهمون: Czypionka, Thomas [0000-0002-3381-1075], Prainsack, Barbara [0000-0002-6335-1532], Glaab, Enrico [0000-0003-3977-7469], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, European Commission - EC [sponsor], Fonds National de la Recherche - FnR [sponsor], Luxembourg Centre for Systems Biomedicine (LCSB) [research center]

المصدر: The Lancet Regional Health-Europe
The Lancet Regional Health. Europe, Vol 13, Iss, Pp 100294-(2022)
The lancet / Regional health / Europe 13, 100294 (2022). doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100294
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/115910

مصطلحات موضوعية: Immunology & infectious disease [D12] [Human health sciences], COVID-19 (Disease) -- Vaccination, Studier av offentlig förvaltning, 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Multidisciplinary, general & others [F99] [Life sciences], COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020, containment, Vaccine Related, Multidisciplinaire, généralités & autres [F99] [Sciences du vivant], COVID-19 (Disease) -- Safety measures, Internal Medicine, ddc:610, non-pharmaceutical interventions, 3202 Clinical Sciences, SARS-CoV-2, Public Administration Studies, pandemic, Prevention, Health Policy, COVID-19, 3 Good Health and Well Being, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention, Immunologie & maladie infectieuse [D12] [Sciences de la santé humaine], 50 Philosophy and Religious Studies, Oncology, COVID-19 (Disease) -- Government policy, Public health strategies, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270

الوصف: In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
peer-reviewed

وصف الملف: application/pdf

الوصول الحر: https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::07667d1c693fe526c331ccc38157c3caTest