دورية أكاديمية
Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model
| العنوان: | Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model |
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| المؤلفون: | Zhang, Jiang, Dong, Lei, Zhang, Yanbo, Chen, Xinyue, Yao, Guiqing, Han, Zhangang |
| المساهمون: | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. SENSEable City Laboratory |
| المصدر: | Springer Netherlands |
| بيانات النشر: | Springer Science and Business Media LLC |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) |
| الوصف: | Policy makers around the world are facing unprecedented challenges in making decisions on when and what degrees of measures should be implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, using a nationwide mobile phone dataset, we developed a networked meta-population model to simulate the impact of intervention in controlling the spread of the virus in China by varying the effectiveness of transmission reduction and the timing of intervention start and relaxation. We estimated basic reproduction number and transition probabilities between health states based on reported cases. Our model demonstrates that both the time of initiating an intervention and its effectiveness had a very large impact on controlling the epidemic, and the current Chinese intense social distancing intervention has reduced the impact substantially but would have been even more effective had it started earlier. The optimal duration of the control measures to avoid resurgence was estimated to be 2 months, although would need to be longer under less effective controls. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| تدمد: | 0924-090X 1573-269X |
| العلاقة: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05769-2Test; Nonlinear Dynamics; https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128162Test; Zhang, Jiang et al. "Investigating time, strength, and duration of measures in controlling the spread of COVID-19 using a networked meta-population model." Nonlinear Dynamics 101, 3 (June 2020): 1789–1800 © 2020 Springer Nature |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05769-2Test https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/128162Test |
| حقوق: | Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. ; Springer Nature B.V. |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.74084A9D |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| تدمد: | 0924090X 1573269X |
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