Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after valve surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Risk factors identified in the past to predict POAF are of moderate accuracy. We performed a retrospective analysis of 139 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. Post-operative AF occurred in 44% of the patients. In multivariate analysis only left atrial volume (LAV) index was a predictor of POAF. A LAV index of >46 cc/m2 predicted POAF with a sensitivity and specificity of 92% and 77%. We propose that LAV index can be used preoperatively to identify patients at risk for POAF to target preventive interventions.
