We examined if circulating levels of cardiac troponin-I (cTnI) predict subsequent heart failure in the community.Using Cox proportional hazards models, we examined the risk of a first hospitalization for heart failure during a maximum of 11.4 years in a community-based sample of 1089 70-year-old men without heart failure, valvular disease, or electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy. Adjusting for smoking, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes, body mass index, serum cholesterol, and myocardial infarction before baseline or during follow-up, 0.01 microg/L higher cTnI conferred a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.26 (95% confidence interval 1.15-1.38) for subsequent heart failure. Persons with cTnIor =0.03 microg/L had an HR of 5.25 (2.00-13.77) compared with persons with cTnI0.01 microg/L. Adjusting additionally for serum NTproBNP attenuated the estimates somewhat [HR 1.22 (1.11-1.34) per 0.01 microg/L of cTnI]. Excluding persons with myocardial infarction before baseline and censoring at time of myocardial infarction during follow-up, 0.01 microg/L higher cTnI was associated with a multivariable-adjusted HR of 1.31 (1.16-1.47) for heart failure.In a community-based sample, a direct measure of cardiomyocyte damage, cTnI, indicated a substantially increased risk of heart failure, accounting for other risk factors. Studies investigating the clinical utility of measuring cTnI in asymptomatic individuals are warranted.
