Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data
| العنوان: | Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data |
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| المؤلفون: | Marc Aerts, Philippe Beutels, Christel Faes, Ziv Shkedy, Niel Hens, O. Lejeune, P. Van Damme |
| المساهمون: | HENS, Niel, AERTS, Marc, FAES, Christel, SHKEDY, Ziv, Lejeune, O., van Damme, P., Beutels, P. |
| المصدر: | Epidemiology and infection |
| سنة النشر: | 2009 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Adult, Pathology, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, Epidemiology, Force of infection, Rubella, Communicable Diseases, History, 21st Century, Models, Biological, Disease Outbreaks, Parvoviridae Infections, Young Adult, Incidence data, medicine, Parvovirus B19, Human, Seroprevalence, Humans, Child, business.industry, Statistical model, History, 20th Century, medicine.disease, Infectious Diseases, Infectious disease (medical specialty), Child, Preschool, Hugo Muench, incidence data, infectious diseases, serological data, statistical modelling, Survey data collection, Human medicine, business, Demography |
| الوصف: | The force of infection, describing the rate at which a susceptible person acquires an infection, is a key parameter in models estimating the infectious disease burden, and the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of infectious disease prevention. Since Muench formulated the first catalytic model to estimate the force of infection from current status data in 1934, exactly 75 years ago, several authors addressed the estimation of this parameter by more advanced statistical methods, while applying these to seroprevalence and reported incidence/case notification data. In this paper we present an historical overview, discussing the relevance of Muench's work, and we explain the wide array of newer methods with illustrations on pre-vaccination serological survey data of two airborne infections: rubella and parvovirus B19. We also provide guidance on deciding which method(s) to apply to estimate the force of infection, given a particular set of data. We thank the editor and both referees for their valuable suggestions that have led to an improved version of the manuscript. This work was supported by research project (MSM 0021620839), funded by 'SIMID', a strategic basic research project funded by the institute for the Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT) (project number 06008); by the Fund of Scientific Research (FWO, Research Grant G039304) in Flanders, Belgium; and by the TAP research network (no. P6/03) of the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy). The R-code used to analyse the datasets in this manuscript is available from the authors. |
| وصف الملف: | pdf; application/pdf |
| تدمد: | 1469-4409 0021-6208 0950-2688 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::5b4063578d9743079f829a97c77272a6Test https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19765352Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....5b4063578d9743079f829a97c77272a6 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14694409 00216208 09502688 |
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