Modeling individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of recurrent infections: an application to parvovirus B19
| العنوان: | Modeling individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of recurrent infections: an application to parvovirus B19 |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Niel Hens, Steven Abrams |
| المصدر: | Biostatistics |
| بيانات النشر: | Oxford University Press (OUP), 2014. |
| سنة النشر: | 2014 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Statistics and Probability, medicine.medical_specialty, Recurrent infections, Operations research, Recurrence, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Epidemiology, Parvovirus B19, Human, medicine, Humans, Waning immunity, Intensive care medicine, Biology, Computer. Automation, Estimation, reproduction number, serological data, SIR and SIRS transmission models, social contact hypothesis, univariate, shared and correlated gamma frailty models, Models, Statistical, Individual heterogeneity, biology, Parvovirus, business.industry, Univariate, General Medicine, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, biology.organism_classification, Virus Diseases, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, business, Mathematics |
| الوصف: | In recent years, it has been shown that individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of infectious diseases has a large impact on the estimation of important epidemiological parameters such as the (basic) reproduction number. Therefore, frailty modeling has become increasingly popular in infectious disease epidemiology. However, so far, using frailty models, it was assumed infections confer lifelong immunity after recovery, an assumption which is untenable for non-immunizing infections. Our work concentrates on refining the existing frailty models to encompass complexities of waning immunity and consequently recurrent infections while accounting for individual heterogeneity. Univariate and shared gamma frailty models, frequently used in practice, and correlated gamma frailty models that have proven to be a valuable alternative are considered. We show that incorrectly assuming lifelong immunity when applying frailty models introduces substantial bias in the estimation of both the baseline hazard and the frailty parameters, and consequently of the basic and effective reproduction number. We illustrate our work using cross-sectional serological data on parvovirus B19 (PVB19) from Belgium for which the link with varicella zoster virus is exploited. The computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI. |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| تدمد: | 1468-4357 1465-4644 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::ecd92e249b40e29bea2062f334a6a02eTest https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxu031Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....ecd92e249b40e29bea2062f334a6a02e |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 14684357 14654644 |
|---|