Asperity-based earthquake likelihood models for Italy
| العنوان: | Asperity-based earthquake likelihood models for Italy |
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| المؤلفون: | Danijel Schorlemmer, Stefan Wiemer, Laura Gulia |
| المساهمون: | Gulia L., Wiemer S., Schorlemmer D. |
| المصدر: | Annals of Geophysics, 53 (3) Annals of Geophysics, Vol 53, Iss 3, Pp 63-75 (2010) |
| بيانات النشر: | Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, INGV, 2010. |
| سنة النشر: | 2010 |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | lcsh:QC801-809, Seismotectonics, Magnitude (mathematics), Sampling (statistics), lcsh:QC851-999, Statistical seismology, Induced seismicity, Earthquake forecasting, b-values, Seismic hazard, Earthquake forecasting, b-values, Statistical seismology, Seismotectonics, Seismic hazard, lcsh:Geophysics. Cosmic physics, Tectonics, Geophysics, lcsh:Meteorology. Climatology, Akaike information criterion, Geology, Seismology, Asperity (materials science) |
| الوصف: | The Asperity Likelihood Model (ALM) hypothesizes that small-scale spatial variations in the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship have a central role in forecasting future seismicity. The physical basis of the ALM is the concept that the local b-value is inversely dependent on the applied shear stress. Thus low b-values (b 1.1), which can be found, for example, in creeping sections of faults, suggest a lower probability of large events. To turn this hypothesis into a forecast model for Italy, we first determined the regional b-value (b = 0.93 ±0.01) and compared it with the locally determined b-values at each node of the forecast grid, based on sampling radii ranging from 6 km to 20 km. We used the local b-values if their Akaike Information Criterion scores were lower than those of the regional b-values. We then explored two modifications to this model: in the ALM.IT, we declustered the input catalog for M ≥2 and smoothed the node-wise rates of the declustered catalog with a Gaussian filter. Completeness values for each node were determined using the probability-based magnitude of completeness method. In the second model, the hybrid ALM (HALM), as a «hybrid» between a grid-based and a zoning model, the Italian territory was divided into eight distinct regions that depended on the main tectonic regimes, and the local b-value variability was thus mapped using the regional b-values for each tectonic zone. Annals of Geophysics, 53 (3) ISSN:1593-5213 |
| وصف الملف: | application/application/pdf; ELETTRONICO |
| تدمد: | 2037-416X 1593-5213 |
| الوصول الحر: | https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_dedup___::0cde35248fa8f44322e848ccba86574eTest https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4843Test |
| حقوق: | OPEN |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsair.doi.dedup.....0cde35248fa8f44322e848ccba86574e |
| قاعدة البيانات: | OpenAIRE |
| تدمد: | 2037416X 15935213 |
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