التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية
| العنوان: |
The Interpretation of Probability in Intelligence Estimation and Strategic Assessment. |
| المؤلفون: |
Rosenberg, Joab |
| المصدر: |
Intelligence & National Security; Apr2008, Vol. 23 Issue 2, p139-152, 14p |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: |
PROBABILITY theory, PHILOSOPHY, A priori, STATISTICS, REASONING |
| مستخلص: |
The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of 'a priori' interpretation of probability with a higher level of 'relative frequency' interpretation is the result of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| قاعدة البيانات: |
Complementary Index |
