دورية أكاديمية
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway
| العنوان: | Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
|---|---|
| المؤلفون: | Kileng, H., Bernfort, Lars, Gutteberg, T., Moen, O. S., Kristiansen, M. G., Paulssen, E. J., Berg, L. K., Florholmen, J., Goll, R. |
| بيانات النشر: | Linköpings universitet, Avdelningen för hälso- och sjukvårdsanalys Linköpings universitet, Medicinska fakulteten UiT Arctic University of Norway, Norway; University Hospital North Norway, Norway UiT Arctic University of Norway, Norway Nordland Hospital, Norway Helgeland Hospital, Norway BIOMED CENTRAL LTD |
| سنة النشر: | 2017 |
| المجموعة: | Linköping University Electronic Press (LiU E-Press) |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Disease burden, Fibrosis development, Hepatitis C, Markov modelling, Natural course, Infectious Medicine, Infektionsmedicin |
| الوصف: | Background: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area. Methods: We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. Results: The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. Conclusion: These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | application/pdf |
| اللغة: | English |
| ردمك: | 978-0-00-410984-8 0-00-410984-8 |
| العلاقة: | BMC Infectious Diseases, 2017, 17; http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-141713Test; PMID 28915795; ISI:000410984800003 |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0Test http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-141713Test |
| حقوق: | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.467A7346 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| ردمك: | 9780004109848 0004109848 |
|---|---|
| DOI: | 10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 |