-
1دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Smith, C.J., Kramer, R.J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F.M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Lewinschal, A., Mackallah, C., Dix, M., Pincus, R., Forster, P.M.
الوصف: The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day ...
وصف الملف: text
العلاقة: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16649/1/acp-20-9591-2020.pdfTest; http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/16649/2/acp-20-9591-2020-supplement.pdfTest; Smith, C.J. orcid:0000-0003-0599-4633 , Kramer, R.J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., et al. (2020). Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20 (16) 9591-9618. 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020 .
-
2دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Bruckman, V., Haruthaithanasan, M., Miller, R., Terada, T., Brenner, A.-K., Kraxner, F., Flaspohler, D.
الوصف: We conducted a feasibility study in Indochina (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) with the aim of promoting biomass and bioenergy markets, technology transfer, rural development, and income generation. Policy development is guided by the International Union of Forest Research Institutions (IUFRO) Task Force “Sustainable Forest Bioenergy Network”. In this paper, we highlight the achievements up to now and present results of a multi-stakeholder questionnaire in combination with a quantitative analysis of the National Bioenergy Development Plans (NBDPs). We found a gap between official documents and working group assessments. NBDPs are focused on the market development, technology transfer, and funding possibilities of a regional bioenergy strategy, while the respondents of a questionnaire (working groups) favored more altruistic goals, i.e., sustainable resource management, environmental protection and climate change mitigation, generation of rural income, and community involvement, etc. We therefore suggest the following measures to ensure regulations that support the original aims of the network (climate change mitigation, poverty alleviation, sustainable resource use, and diversification of energy generation): (i) Consideration of science-based evidence for drafting bioenergy policies, particularly in the field of biomass production and harvesting; (ii) invitation of stakeholders representing rural communities to participate in this process; (iii) development of sustainability criteria; (iv) feedback cycles ensuring more intensive discussion of policy drafts; (v) association of an international board of experts to provide scientifically sound feedback and input; and (vi) establishment of a local demonstration region, containing various steps in the biomass/bioenergy supply chain including transboundary collaboration in the ACMECS region.
وصف الملف: text
العلاقة: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15276/1/forests-09-00223.pdfTest; http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15276/2/forests-09-00223-s001.pdfTest; Bruckman, V., Haruthaithanasan, M., Miller, R., Terada, T., Brenner, A.-K., Kraxner, F. , & Flaspohler, D. (2018). Sustainable Forest Bioenergy Development Strategies in Indochina: Collaborative Effort to Establish Regional Policies. Forests 9 (4) e223. 10.3390/f9040223 .
-
3دورية أكاديمية
المؤلفون: Bruckman, V.J., Haruthaithanasan, M., Kraxner, F., Miller, R., Darabant, A., Choumnit, G., Thongmanivong, S., Ko Ko Gyi, M., Houng, H.T.L., Supamitmongkol, W.
الوصف: Global change, including climate change, societal dynamics, economic challenges, environmental protection and the need to improve livelihoods and to reduce poverty have led to a situation where national solutions must be embedded in regional strategies. The ACMECS countries Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam have a long tradition in collaboration across borders. Despite the cultural heterogeneity and different status of development, it can be a great advantage to address global challenges together. Biomass is seen as a promising resource for energy and industrial raw materials, but the challenge is that biomass production requires land and increased production can cause conflicts and environmental degradation. The increased demand for biomass in the recent years, coupled with the fact that the balance between domestic, regional and foreign demand for biomass is changing, requires careful attention. As a consequence of these developments, the Kasetsart Agricultural and Agro-Industrial Product Improvement Institute (KAPI) of the Kasetsart University, Thailand initiated a process to establish a regional bioenergy network. International experts, including members of the IUFRO Task Force "Sustainable Forest Biomass Network (SFBN)", have acknowledged the significant progress made over the last few years. This report is jointly published with the IUFRO Occasional Paper series, Vol. 31 (http://www.iufro.org/publications/series/occasional-papers/article/2016/04/20/occasional-paper-31-acmecs-bioenergy-2015-three-years-of-efforts-towards-a-regional-bioenergy-nTest/)
وصف الملف: text
العلاقة: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/1/ACMECS%20Bioenergy%202015.pdfTest; http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/2/op31.pdfTest; http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/3/op31-acmecs-bioenergy-2015-executive-summary.pdfTest; Bruckman, V.J., Haruthaithanasan, M., Kraxner, F. , Miller, R., Darabant, A., Choumnit, G., Thongmanivong, S., Ko Ko Gyi, M., et al. (2016). ACMECS Bioenergy 2015. Three Years of Effort Towards a Regional Bioenergy Network. Commission for Interdisciplinary Ecological Studies (KIOES) 10.1553/KIOESOP_005 .
الإتاحة: https://doi.org/10.1553/KIOESOP_005Test
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306Test/
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/1/ACMECS%20Bioenergy%202015.pdfTest
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/2/op31.pdfTest
http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13306/3/op31-acmecs-bioenergy-2015-executive-summary.pdfTest
