دورية أكاديمية
Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their price forecasts
| العنوان: | Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their price forecasts |
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| المؤلفون: | Hanaki, Nobuyuki, Akiyama, Eizo, Ishikawa, Ryuichiro |
| المساهمون: | Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion (GREDEG), Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) (UNS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Côte d'Azur (UniCA), Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems Tsukuba, Université de Tsukuba = University of Tsukuba, School of International Liberal Studies, Waseda University, CODIREM, ANR-15-ORAR-0004,BEAM,Analyses comportementales et exp?rimentales en macro-finance(2015), ANR-15-IDEX-0001,UCA JEDI,Idex UCA JEDI(2015) |
| المصدر: | ISSN: 0165-1889 ; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ; https://hal.science/hal-01712301Test ; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2018, 88, pp.121 - 136. ⟨10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.020⟩. |
| بيانات النشر: | HAL CCSD Elsevier |
| سنة النشر: | 2018 |
| المجموعة: | HAL Université Côte d'Azur |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | behavioral uncertainty JEL Code: C90, D84, Price forecasts, interval elicitation, experimental asset markets, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance |
| الوصف: | International audience ; By how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects' confidence in their price forecasts? An incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question. Each market consists of six traders, and the value of dividends is known. Two treatments are considered: six human traders (6H), and one human interacting with five computer traders whose behavior is known (1H5C). We find that while the deviation of the initial price forecasts from fundamental value is smaller in the 1H5C treatment than in the 6H treatment, albeit not statistically significantly, the average confidence regarding the forecasts is not. We further analyze the relationships between subjects' confidence in their forecasts and their trading behavior, as well as their trading performance, in the 6H treatment. While subjects' high confidence in their short-term forecasts shows a negative correlation with their trading performance, high confidence in their long-term forecasts shows a positive correlation with trading performance. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| اللغة: | English |
| العلاقة: | hal-01712301; https://hal.science/hal-01712301Test; https://hal.science/hal-01712301/documentTest; https://hal.science/hal-01712301/file/HAIinterval2017v6.pdfTest |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.020 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.020Test https://hal.science/hal-01712301Test https://hal.science/hal-01712301/documentTest https://hal.science/hal-01712301/file/HAIinterval2017v6.pdfTest |
| حقوق: | info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.525149F2 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.020 |
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