دورية أكاديمية
Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them
| العنوان: | Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them |
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| المؤلفون: | Bonaccorsi A., Apreda R., Fantoni G. |
| المساهمون: | Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., Fantoni, G. |
| سنة النشر: | 2020 |
| المجموعة: | ARPI - Archivio della Ricerca dell'Università di Pisa |
| مصطلحات موضوعية: | Anchoring, Desirability bia, Expert biase, False consensus effect, Framing effect, Hindsight bia, Overconfidence, Planning fallacy |
| الوصف: | The paper addresses an issue largely discussed in the field of Forecasting and in many future-oriented scientific and professional disciplines, but less frequently considered in the Foresight literature, particularly in the technology foresight field- i.e. the extent to which biases of human experts influence the foresight process. The paper reviews the literature on cognitive biases and identifies the main areas of technology foresight in which biases are most likely to materialize. It offers a number of examples in which these biases may indeed create distortions. It also reviews the potential impact of several recently introduced methods, in the field of technology foresight and in related areas, to mitigate the distortions and calls for future research in this new field of investigation. |
| نوع الوثيقة: | article in journal/newspaper |
| وصف الملف: | ELETTRONICO |
| اللغة: | English |
| العلاقة: | info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000509818900012; volume:151; journal:TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE; https://hdl.handle.net/11568/1021141Test; info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85076246171; https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technological-forecasting-and-social-changeTest |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855 |
| الإتاحة: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855Test https://hdl.handle.net/11568/1021141Test https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technological-forecasting-and-social-changeTest |
| رقم الانضمام: | edsbas.EF839D28 |
| قاعدة البيانات: | BASE |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855 |
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